Bill Gertz
Stepped-up activities within China’s transportation network will provide American military planners with clear signs of impending military action against Taiwan, a congressional commission was told on Thursday.
Devin Thorne, a private threat intelligence analyst, said that U.S. analysts would be able to detect any preparations for a major conflict against Taiwan through military mobilization activities inside China.
Mr. Thorne told a hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission that a People’s Liberation Army logistic report outlined the transportation requirements for a Taiwan attack, including some 3,000 train trips, 1 million vehicle trips, 2,100 aircraft sorties, 15 oil pipeline battalions and more than 8,000 ship voyages, according to the PLA Logistics Academic Research Center.
“In a major conflict, such as against Taiwan, mobilization to a wartime footing would likely create observable distortions or anomalies in the PRC transportation sector despite possible PLA efforts to conceal such irregularities,” Mr. Thorne stated.
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