Hal Brands
Israel faces several grave decisions in the coming weeks — what to do in Gaza after the fighting in Rafah concludes, how to balance the campaign against Hamas with the quest to free the hostages, whether to move decisively toward normalization with Saudi Arabia. But Israel’s most fateful choice is whether to pivot from one war, against Hamas, to another, against Hezbollah. That simmering conflict is approaching a moment for decision. The best way for President Joe Biden to head off a devastating Israeli war with Hezbollah in Lebanon is to demonstrate that he will back Israel to the hilt.
I spent last week in Israel with a group of US and European academics. Even as combat in Rafah rages, the crisis on Israel’s northern border dominates the strategic debate.
Since Oct. 7, the escalating back-and-forth between Israel and Hezbollah has claimed hundreds of lives and depopulated swaths of northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Although Israel has inflicted perhaps 10 fatalities for each one it has suffered, the government is hardly satisfied with the situation.
Tens of thousands of Israelis are still scattered from their homes; the country’s inhabitable territory has, in effect, contracted. Israeli tolerance for that predicament is waning.
No comments:
Post a Comment