Ryan C. Bercaw
Japan officially maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity toward the issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty. Taiwan’s security, however, is an unambiguous and essential interest in Tokyo. Should Beijing decide to unify Taiwan by force, Japan’s strategic interest, deep affinity for the Taiwanese, and security alliance with the United States will compel Tokyo to defend its southern neighbor. For Japan, peace in the Taiwan Strait is a matter of national survival.
Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone a rearmament on a scale unseen elsewhere in the 21st century. Beijing is accelerating its military development to have the capabilities required to forcefully unify Taiwan by 2027. While 2027 is hardly a set date for invasion, it does point to the sense of urgency Beijing has toward wielding credible options to resolve the so-called Taiwan issue.
Japan is cognizant of these developments and explicitly affirmed Taiwan’s central importance to Japanese security in three national-level strategic documents released in recent years.
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