30 May 2024

What If China Chooses to Blockade Taiwan Rather Than Invade?

Brandon J. Weichert

There’s a debate raging in defense circles about how China plans to press forward with its goal to take Taiwan. Some believe the People’s Republic of China is readying to conduct a massive amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

Others experts, notably in the U.S. Navy, challenge this assessment. They think that the Chinese will use a slower, more methodical method to reabsorb Taiwan, deploying a long-term blockade. This would be supplemented by other non-kinetic approaches such as economic pressure and cyberspace brinkmanship.

China is developing the means to hit Taiwan hard and fast. I remain convinced that Beijing has the capabilities to attempt an amphibious landing this year. That would be a very big risk, however, for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is already feeling political pressure at home after his failed economic policies and disastrous COVID response protocols.

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