Jonathan Panikoff
The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on Sunday may have shocked the Middle East and broader world, but it is rather unlikely to alter Iran’s strategic direction in either domestic or foreign policy. While Raisi held the title of president, his authority was constrained by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, within whom ultimate power is vested in the Islamic Republic.
But even so, Raisi’s death does leave a power vacuum in Iran. Section 131 of the Iranian constitution calls for First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to assume power next. But Mokhber is unlikely to have any meaningful influence or seek to succeed Raisi. He will instead, as long as the constitution is followed, be replaced by a successor following an election within fifty days from when Raisi’s death was declared.
For the regime, another round of presidential elections is a headache that it would almost certainly have preferred to avoid. The Guardian Council—the body that determines which candidates are sufficiently loyal enough to the Islamic Republic’s ideology to be permitted to run—thought it had in Raisi a leader who would be around to take Iran into the next generation, likely a post-Khamenei one.
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