Michael Vatikiotis
A Russian foreign policy expert, Fyodor Lukyanov, stated the other day in Beijing that World War III has already begun. He argued that instead of one global conflict that would quickly escalate toward nuclear war, this world war is being fought in the form of a chain of regional conflicts. He may have a point.
From the war in Ukraine, to the war in Gaza, to tensions in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the Korean Peninsula, regional conflicts have involved all the great powers, either as combatants or in proxy roles. Except for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s ghastly war in Gaza, the other regional hotspots have yet to erupt as full-blown conflicts; if they do, the two largest superpowers, China and the United States, could be at war.
The bad news is that these conflicts are escalating in the face of futile efforts to mediate. After a feeble Ukrainian counteroffensive over the summer, Russia is now on the offensive in Ukraine. Kyiv’s valiant resistance could lose vital support from the U.S., which is tiring of the war.
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