Alexander Motyl
On whose side is time—Ukraine’s or Russia’s?
Or, to put the question more pointedly, which country is better equipped to sustain a long war?
The questions are obviously important. If time is on Ukraine’s side, then it should avoid negotiations and drag out the war for as long as possible. If time is on Russia’s side, then it should act the same way.
The Ukraine War and the Issue of Time and Sustainabilty
Answering these questions is harder than may appear at first glance.
For starters, subjective beliefs are important. Believing you can sustain a war may not guarantee that you will, but it surely makes a difference. Morale matters. But objective indices of resilience—such as numbers of soldiers, weapons, and ammunition—also matter, as does even more so their quality. Finally, a variety of domestic and international factors can also affect the ability of countries to sustain war.
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