Can Kasapoğlu
1. Battlefield Assessment
Russia continues to rain drones and missiles on Ukrainian cities, once more highlighting Ukraine’s critical reliance on robust air defense capabilities. Moscow’s strategy has been like that of a boxer, throwing a few quick jabs to soften his opponent for a series of harder blows. This week, Russian forces launched a heavy salvo of Iranian Shahed-baseline loitering munitions at Ukrainian cities, attempting to fatigue Kyiv’s air defenses before striking with more potent follow-on Iskander ballistic missiles. While the Ukrainian air defenses’ performance against Russian drones has improved recently, with almost flawless interception rates, the projectiles continue to plague Kyiv.
Ukraine’s lackluster initial response to Moscow’s Kharkiv offensive allowed Russian forces to capture several Ukrainian positions with relative ease. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) indicates that some Ukrainian units were initially unable to coordinate defensive combat operations at scale. Satellite imagery also confirms that Ukraine suffered from gaps in its security zones, the forward areas of its lines of defense. These shortcomings enabled Russian combat formations to make immediate tactical gains and left the Ukrainian General Staff no choice but to order a coordinated withdrawal to stabilize the front lines in accordance with the harsh battlefield geometry.
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