Threat of communal violence grows in western and central Myanmar

Morgan Michaels

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Six months since the launch of Operation 1027, Myanmar’s regime continues to suffer punishing setbacks across the battlefield. Anti-junta groups are now looking to expand their territorial control and consolidate their own administrations. Yet despite their progress and ambition they face a number of daunting obstacles, including rising communal tensions, territorial disputes, and a stubborn enemy that remains well resourced and determined to maximise the costs of war.

Faced with mounting losses in Rakhine, the regime has resorted to arming members of the Rohingya ethnic minority to counter the Arakan Army’s (AA) advance. The AA has reacted with inflammatory rhetoric and violence directed at the Rohingya. A dangerous dynamic is emerging, reminiscent of the communal tension in Rakhine State between 2012 and 2017 which led to episodes of violence perpetrated by communities along ethnic lines. In the centre of the country, the regime has made a turn back towards indiscriminate violence and is upping support for local militias, a move that could supercharge inter-village conflict. But some attacks by local People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) may be inadvertently driving the growth of these regime-aligned outfits, referred to as Pyu Saw Htee.