Hilal Khashan
Syrian President Bashar Assad has reason to distance himself from his erstwhile ally Iran. It’s true that Iran helped stabilize the government in Damascus and was instrumental in putting down a rebel uprising, but its continued presence on Syrian territory is a threat to Assad – not least because it invites occasional strikes from Israel. Assad sees Israeli pressure as an opportunity to get rid of Iran for good, and to that end he has signaled an interest in meeting with the United States, which sees ousting Iran as a necessary step in rehabilitating the Syrian regime. Given the escalation between Iran and Israel, it is unlikely that Assad would have made such signals if he were not sincere in his desire to draw closer to the U.S. and further from Iran.
A Worn-Out Welcome
Although Iran still has significant influence in Damascus, Assad’s government is no puppet state. Like all Syrian rulers before him, Assad wants political autonomy, giving priority to the preservation of his regime. He admits that Iran and Hezbollah helped his government survive, but he had hoped they would withdraw after defeating the rebels. Instead, Iran has intensified its military and intelligence presence without Assad’s consent and against his plans to retake parts of the country controlled by radical Islamic movements. Iran’s strategic project is to consolidate its presence in Syria regardless of who occupies the presidency. After taking control of so much Syrian territory, Assad no longer needs Iran, and he has no problem getting rid of it. Assad understands that Iran’s presence will discourage Western countries from contributing to Syria’s reconstruction, and their absence will allow Tehran to retrieve the vast resources that it expended to shore up the regime. Assad knows that Iran is ready to abandon him and work with his successor if it reaches an agreement with Washington to achieve its ambitions in the Middle East.
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