Sima Shine & Raz Zimmt
In recent months, as Iran has approached the nuclear threshold and shortened the times for producing nuclear weapons, and as the monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency over the nuclear facilities has significantly declined, Iran could likely decide to change its policy and achieve nuclear weapons capability. Although a decision on this matter poses risks to Iran—military conflict with Israel and possibly even the United States—Iranian leader Ali Khamenei could retreat from his current position that maintaining the nuclear threshold is sufficient. Therefore, through a credible military threat, the Iranian leadership must be convinced that progressing to nuclear weapons will directly endanger the regime’s survival. At the same time, the international community should embark on a series of political and economic moves to persuade Iran to rollback its nuclear program.
In recent years Iranian officials have mentioned the possibility that Iran’s nuclear strategy could shift toward producing nuclear weapons. However, in the past year and especially in recent months, the preoccupation with this issue has increased considerably. Iranian statements often refer to the advanced technological status of their nuclear program, stressing the potential to produce nuclear warheads within a short time. Former head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, claimed in an interview aired on Iranian television in February 2024 that the regime has all the necessary components for nuclear weapons but has not assembled them. Mahmoud Reza Aghamiri, president of Shahid Beheshti University and a nuclear scientist, said in April 2024 that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei can at any time withdraw his fatwa banning the production of nuclear weapons and that Iran is capable of producing them.
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