Walter Russell Mead
World leaders know that what happens in the Middle East doesn’t stay there. As Israel warns Gazans to evacuate Rafah and negotiators haggle over cease-fire terms, the effect of Middle East hostilities on the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific continues to deepen.
First and most directly, the Middle East war is expanding. On May 4, Iranian state media reported that the Shahid Mahdavi, a former container ship converted to carry and launch fixed-wing drones and helicopters and equipped with sophisticated electronic equipment, had crossed the equator in the Indian Ocean. The move came as the Houthis reiterated their threats to target ships from the Red Sea as far south as the Cape of Good Hope.
These threats aren’t idle. Houthi drones can hit targets more than 1,200 miles from their bases in Yemen, and on April 26 they struck a container ship more than 300 nautical miles southeast of the Horn of Africa. The damage to the MSC Orion was minor and crew members weren’t injured, but the message was clear. Any ship attempting to reach Europe from the Mideast or Indo-Pacific now risks a Houthi attack.
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