Myanmar policy at a crossroads

Morgan Michaels

Source Link

On 11 April regime soldiers withdrew from the last outpost guarding Myawaddy, a critical trading town on the Myanmar–Thailand border, following an almost month-long siege by opposition forces. While it was eventually able to push back its opponent with the help of airpower and the local Border Guard Force, the episode at Myawaddy underscored the junta’s increasingly precarious grip on many of Myanmar’s most strategic areas. Though it was at the peak of its might just before the February 2021 military coup, the Myanmar army’s survival looks increasingly uncertain.

With the balance of power shifting in Myanmar, the region must confront a new reality marked by a receding regime and the rise of various non-state armed groups in control of different parts of the country. As Myanmar fragments, the question of how and with whom international stakeholders should engage becomes increasingly complex. Myanmar’s neighbours face unique conditions and concerns due to the variety of conflict actors and dynamics in the country. As such, international responses to the conflict remain disjointed and divergent.