Ali Riaz
As recently as 2021, Bangladesh was portrayed as a triumph. As Bangladeshis celebrated fifty years of independence, the international media celebrated the country as an economic success that had raised millions of people out of poverty. In the past few years, however, it has become more evident that the country’s economic health is in trouble.
Recent economic data and projections by international institutions, including the World Bank, reveal that the country faces considerable headwinds. Several notable social indicators, too, raise concerns that the country’s success story may be unraveling. Not coincidently, these shifts are taking place under a government that is less and less accountable to its citizens.
The worsening economy: The big picture
Published on April 2, the World Bank’s Bangladesh Development Update forecasted that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in fiscal year 2024 would be 5.6 percent. Within days of the World Bank’s forecast came a report from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) that GDP growth in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, between October and December 2023, was 3.78 percent. This is a dramatic decline compared to the previous quarter’s growth, which stood at 6.01 percent. The numbers were far higher in previous years’ second quarters; in fiscal year 2022 it was 9.3 percent and in fiscal year 2023 it was 7.08 percent. The overall GDP growth projection of the World Bank sharply contrasts with the government’s initial projection for fiscal year 2024, which the Bangladeshi government revised down in January from 7.5 percent to 6.5 percent.
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