Dr Jack Watling
Russia has now started the early phases of its anticipated summer offensive with renewed attacks on Kharkiv. Over the past few days, Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border, occupying a number of villages. Ukraine has spent several months fortifying Kharkiv, but storming the city is not how Russia intends to fight. The Russian target this summer is the Ukrainian army, and against this target it has started to compound its advantages.
The Long Front
The Russian forces attacking Ukraine have now expanded to 510,000 troops. This means that Russia has established significant numerical superiority over the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Heavy losses among Russia’s officer corps and more capable units earlier in the war have reduced its capacity to conduct large-scale offensive ground manoeuvre. The Russians have been limited to conducting platoon and company attacks, rather than brigade or divisional operations, meaning that they rarely decisively overmatch Ukrainian defenders at any one location. With such overall numerical superiority, however, Russia has begun to turn this limitation to its advantage.
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