Andreas Umland
There is no doubt that Moscow has shaken the international security system with its full-scale invasion of peaceful Ukraine and subsequent territorial annexations, genocidal policies, open nuclear threats, and abuse of its veto power in the UN Security Council.
After more than ten years of war in Ukraine, the results of Russia’s attack on its purported “brother nation” remain uneven for the Kremlin. On the one hand, its image as a supposed military superpower has suffered disastrously. The war in 2022 became an international embarrassment for the Russian leadership, army, and weapons industry. Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine led to the loss of Western partners, markets, and investors. These and other related setbacks will have far-reaching regional, geopolitical, economic, and possibly even domestic political consequences for Russia.
Moscow’s Achievements
On the other hand, a number of partly ignored and partly underestimated results of Russia’s Ukraine policy have weakened the international order and the West. The invasion launched in February 2022 led to a partial consolidation of the Western bloc: NATO and the EU have moved closer together; Western countries have supplied military and other support to Ukraine; Finland and Sweden have joined NATO; at the same time, the EU is about to start membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and has granted candidate status to Georgia.
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