Cost of climate change comparable to economic damage caused by fighting a war

Oliver Milman

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The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found.

A 1-degree Celsius (1.8 degree Fahrenheit) increase in global temperature leads to a 12-percent decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found—a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1-degree Celsius since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3-degree Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) rise will occur by the end of this century. due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels—a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be formally peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost.

A 3-degree Celsius temperature increase will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100” the paper states. This economic loss is so severe that it is “comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war domestically and permanently,” it adds.