Israel’s near-perfect missile success had a special line of defense

Rebecca Grant

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Diplomacy and deterrence failed, but on Saturday night the U.S. military stepped in to help protect Israel against the unprecedented attack from Iran. Credit a near-perfect missile defense, beginning with U.S. planes and warships, for bringing down 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.

As Iran geared up, the Biden White House once again tried to stop military action by revealing that Iran’s military preparations were being watched. It didn’t work against Iran (or with with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine in 2022.)

The "Don’t" warning is now defunct. Biden’s foreign policy team has to wake up to the reality that right now, their language of deterrence is broken.

Fortunately, the men and women of the U.S. military deployed to the Middle East had Israel’s back. Years of work on technology and training came together with a lot of tactical lessons learned from operations in the Red Sea since last fall. Young military officers and enlisted personnel from the U.S., Great Britain, France and Jordan just carried out a massive save.

Note for China and Xi Jinping: every component of this missile defense from destroyers to fighters to Arrow, Patriot and Iron Dome can be positioned to protect Taiwan, the Philippines or any other U.S. ally. Just saying.

Here’s how it worked Saturday night.

First, intelligence from both Israel and the U.S. picked up early indications that Iran was marshalling drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missile launchers. This was the crucial item: satellites, aerial reconnaissance, cyber sleuths, electronic signals specialists and good old human spies watched for "indications and warning" as Iran’s military and militias got the weapons and crews ready.

I’m telling you, our intelligence pros were probably watching the Iranians finish their tea and get in the trucks to prep the drones. The Pentagon also had time to reposition destroyers in the Eastern Mediterranean and send in an additional U.S. Air Force fighter squadron, according to John Kirby at the White House.

On Saturday night, the U.S. and Israel picked up the launches immediately. Iran was so brazen, they could hardly have missed it. In fact, U.S. forces killed seven drones and one ballistic missile at their launch pads in Yemen. That’s ideal.

Next, as hundreds of missiles and drones were in the air, U.S. and Israeli radars developed tracks of the inbounds and began assigning ships and aircraft to target them. Those slim, haze gray U.S. Navy destroyers off Israel and in the Red Sea are missile defense experts.

The DDG-51s carry the AN/SPY-1 radar. (Look for its flat octagonal antenna array on the mast.) As Iran’s missiles and drones headed for Israel, the Navy AN/SPY-1 radars start displaying and linking a picture of what’s in the air and where the attack was heading. It’s like watching an outfielder catch a baseball pop-fly.

Iran’s obvious preparation and big launches gave defenders ample time. An hour is a long time in missile defense. It’s part art, part science, but efficient missile warning allowed a big chunk of the drones and missiles to be intercepted in flight.

The US Navy was part of Israel's anti-missile shield against Iran. FILE: In a previous attack, the Navy stopped Iran from taking over two tankers in Gulf of Oman. (U.S. Naval Forces Central Command Public Affairs)

Airborne fighter planes pointed their highly sensitive, long-range radars to pick up Iran’s salvos. U.S. Navy F/A-18s from the aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower, most likely U.S. F-35s based in the region, Jordan’s F-16 fighters, and the Israeli air force swung into action. Controllers passed missile and drone track locations which then appeared on cockpit radars.

Iran’s slow, noisy drones are easy prey once they’ve been spotted. The American tally was 80 drones and six ballistic missiles, according to U.S. Central Command. Jordan shot down a number of drones in sovereign Jordanian airspace. Saudi Arabia won’t want to talk about it, but it’s likely the Crown Prince gave permission to use Saudi airspace as needed in the heat of battle.

Cruise missiles can be a bit tougher than drones, especially if they maneuver. However, the warplanes and missile defense up Saturday night were more than a match for Iran’s cruise missiles. Remember an Israeli F-35 Adir fighter (made in the USA) tracked and shot down a Houthi cruise missile inbound for Israel back in October.

Iran’s obvious preparation and big launches gave defenders ample time. An hour is a long time in missile defense. It’s part art, part science, but efficient missile warning allowed a big chunk of the drones and missiles to be intercepted in flight.

Given all the Iranian drones shot down over the Red Sea and Ukraine, the Pentagon has highly current data on the flight characteristics and target signatures of Iran-made weaponry and has shared these tactical updates with Israel. Knowing how the drones and missiles appear on radar was a big help Saturday night.

Finally, Israelis live under the best multi-layered missile defense in the world. The exo-atmospheric Arrow system hit nearly all the incoming ballistic missiles in the middle course of their flight path, destroying most of the warheads in space before re-entry. For anything else that got through, Patriot and Iron Dome. We're ready for terminal defense.

All this was greatly helped by Central Command and Gen. Michael "Erik" Kurilla, United States Army, who met with Israeli officials last week and also organized the team to help Israel on Saturday night. U.S. Central Command knocks out Houthi missiles from Yemen and air drops relief supplies in Gaza almost every day. We should be thankful America’s men and women serving throughout the Middle East stepped in to protect an ally when the White House warnings failed.