Antoine Levesques
India’s recent test of an Agni-V missile using a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) is a milestone in the country’s long-held ambition to acquire an ICBM which could credibly inflict unacceptable damage on Chinese cities.
On 11 March 2024, India successfully tested its first MIRV using the under-development Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) as a delivery vehicle. The successful launch indicates that, after well over a decade of testing, the Agni-V has begun its last development phase, that of integrating the proven missile with a reliable set of warheads.
‘Successful’ test
According to the Ministry of Defence press release, the successful test was carried out from Dr APJ Abdul Kalam Island in Odisha, India’s primary missile-testing facility. The facility’s location on India’s eastern seaboard allows for test launches into the Bay of Bengal with minimal disruption to civilian air and maritime traffic. A low-definition screen capture of the test was released shortly after the press release, showing the missile’s launch with two of its three stages visible. Partly obstructed by the exhaust plume, a yellow wheeled transporter-erector launcher (TEL) is also visible and closely resembles other launch vehicles seen at the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) missile complex near Shamirpet outside Hyderabad, in southern India. The TEL is also visible in satellite imagery of the site taken two days before the test was reported, suggesting it was very unlikely that a rail launcher was used, even though the facility provides this option and the Agni-V may possibly utilise a rail-launch option. In recent years India appears to have created some ambiguity around the launcher types used in tests, which likely underscores the strategic value of the system.
A development milestone
India will almost certainly require more flight tests of its MIRV technology before the Agni-V using it can enter service with the army under the Strategic Forces Command.
One potential developmental hurdle is whether India’s nuclear-warhead designs have shrunk sufficiently in size since being first tested in 1998. India is likely to have the capability to conduct non-nuclear or simulated testing to design nuclear warheads, but whether they will be small and reliable enough for several of them to be fitted onto the roughly two-metre-diameter missile is unknown.
It is possible that India could develop a single-warhead version of the missile without waiting for the MIRV version to be finalised, as the design of the delivery vehicle is more advanced than the MIRV design. The Agni-V has undergone ten known flight tests in 12 years (see Table 1). A press release referred to the 2016 test as the ‘final experimental test’ before possible ‘user’ trials followed. One ‘user’ test was reported in the media in 2021, but there is no official confirmation yet that the missile, in whichever version, has been supplied to the army. Until then, the Agni-V likely remains in development.
Made in India
The Agni-V is a product of the Indian Ministry of Defence’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP), which has led the development of the Prithvi, Agni, Trishul, Nag and Akash (PATNA) families of ballistic and other missiles since 1983. In the last decade, the DRDO, which conducted the recent Agni test, has reportedly become the lead designer, integrator and main software creator for most of India’s indigenous missile supply chain. Correspondingly, India’s domestic defence industry beyond the public company Bharat Dynamics is reportedly increasingly involved in the development of critical subsystems. This division of labour and in the supply chain grew out of international restrictions imposed after the 1998 nuclear tests, because India is a non-signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India joined the Missile Technologies Control Regime in 2016.
Alongside the IGMDP, the Atmanirbhar Bharat or ‘Self-reliant India’ indigenisation drive has intensified across India’s defence sector in the decade since it was launched. Today, indigenous components of the Agni-V include critical subsystems, such as the ring-laser gyroscope and heat-resistant compounds used for the warhead re-entry vehicle. India is believed to have domestically produced this type of technology since at least 2012. The percentage of non-indigenous components in the Agni-V may now be as low as 20%, according to a former DRDO chief. Developments in India’s ability to produce advanced composite materials have also reportedly reduced the weight of the Agni-V by 20%, allowing it to travel further to a claimed range of 7,000 kilometres.
Holding Chinese cities at risk
The 2024 test took place nearly five months after Pakistan tested for the second time its Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile, which is also designed to carry MIRVs. India notified Pakistan in advance of the Agni test, although Islamabad criticised the notification as being too late under the terms of the 2005 India–Pakistan ballistic-missile pre-launch notification agreement.
China was India’s principal audience for its MIRV test. India’s current nuclear arsenal can already inflict unacceptable damage on Pakistan, but China is increasingly the primary focus of India’s nuclear and non-nuclear strategic modernisation and deterrence efforts. Once the Agni-V enters service in sufficient numbers, India will be able to hold at risk population centres across China, including Beijing, from potential road- or rail-launch points possibly located in mountainous areas in central or southwestern India.
Chinese reactions to the test have been muted. Yet India’s interest in developing MIRV technology is to ensure penetrability of Chinese missile defences. The Agni-V’s eventual entry into service could add to strategic stability by providing a powerful second-strike option which could disincentivise China from striking first. All other things being equal, both India and China are committed to no-first-use policies, with Delhi having reiterated this in 2021, among other core claims of its nuclear doctrine. Despite India’s development of an ICBM, Delhi ultimately views a sea-based deterrent centred around its Arihant-class nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines as the most credible, survivable and reliable second-strike capability.
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