The Iranian attacks against Israel on Saturday 13 April were unprecedented, but they have not dented Israel’s escalation dominance. The two countries will remain locked in a downward spiral as long as the Hamas–Israel war continues.
In recent months, Israel has killed senior militia leaders and members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria and Lebanon and degraded its military infrastructure. Iran felt compelled to strike Israel directly after previously avoiding such a decision due to its concern that such action might prompt an all-out war in which it would be outgunned. By showing restraint, however, Tehran risked looking weak and indecisive, eroding the credibility of its deterrence, unnerving IRGC and militia commanders, and encouraging further Israeli attacks.
Iran’s air strike included hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles but was choreographed and telegraphed to limit damage and casualties. The Iranian mission at the United Nations issued a statement even before the projectiles hit Israel to announce an end to this round of escalation. Tellingly, the Lebanese non-state armed group Hizbullah played only a marginal role in the attacks: had Iran ordered the group to unleash a massive barrage of rockets from Israel’s north, it would have signalled that Tehran was interested in a full-on war.
Israel’s air defences were supplemented by American, British, French and Arab capabilities and destroyed most of the incoming projectiles. This shows that Israel remains dependent on external support in this multifront conflict. The countries that assisted Israel, meanwhile, remain wary of its risk appetite. Washington opposes a widening of the conflict and is urging Israel to declare success and move on.
Israel has indeed benefitted from this round. Its conflict with Iran has downgraded the war in Gaza on the international agenda, and Israel has mobilised Western support after weeks of mounting criticism of its brutal military campaign. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also improved his domestic position.
Yet officials in Tel Aviv are considering a response of ‘unprecedented proportions’. They see Iran as weak and deterred, and believe that they have an opportunity to corner Tehran even more. They worry that Iran has set a new floor for escalation by striking Israel directly, rather than through proxies. But an attack on Iranian command-and-control, military or nuclear facilities would compel Iran to lift any restraint. The trajectory of this conflict will be determined in Washington and Tel Aviv in the coming days and weeks.
Strategic Signals
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