YONAH JEREMY BOB
If reports are correct that Israel has used drones to strike Iranian air force assets – whether drones, ballistic missiles, aircraft, or all of the above, at Isfahan – this would be straight out of a playbook that has worked before, as recently as January 2023.
It is also possible that long-range missiles were used, though initial reports indicate an attack from within Iran, which would be more consistent with drone strikes.
In January 2023, despite claims from Tehran, a drone attack on Iran at Isfahan was a tremendous success, according to a mix of Western intelligence sources and foreign sources, The Jerusalem Post learned at the time.
There were four explosions at the site, which could even be witnessed on social media, against a facility developing advanced weapons, and the damage went far beyond the “minor roof damage” that the Islamic Republic claimed here as well as regarding other incidents in recent years.
Israel played both the current and January 2023 incidents mum, but most Western intelligence and Iranian sources credited the Mossad with similarly successful attacks against a nuclear facility at Natanz in July 2020, a different one there in April 2021, another nuclear facility at Karaj in June 2021 and in one destroying at least 120 Iranian drones in February 2022.
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett later publicly admitted to ordering the attack on Iran’s drone facility in February 2022.
There are also few organizations globally besides the Mossad that are reported to have the advanced and surgical strike capabilities appeared to be displayed in this operation.
Iran's history of denial
In each of the incidents, Tehran tried to initially pretend that the attacks failed and only acknowledged the extent of the damage when satellite photos or other evidence broke into the public sphere, outflanking their denials.
It is still unclear whether the advanced weapons that were damaged related only to conventional warfare or might also have dual-use relevance to nuclear issues. This would include certain ballistic missiles or explosive equipment that can be used for both conventional and nuclear weapon purposes – but any anonymous sources commenting seemed to emphasize both in January 2023 and on Friday that the heart of the nuclear program was untouched.
If this is true, it would be Israel’s way of limiting its response so as to avoid a larger Iranian retaliation and also partially honoring US and EU requests to either not strike back or do so in a limited fashion.
Isfahan has been used on and off for various nuclear projects, as well as non-nuclear military ones.
Iran even at one point told the International Atomic Energy Agency that some of the nuclear activities being carried out at the Karaj nuclear facility until June 2021 had been moved to Isfahan.
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