Indian Strategic Studies: April 2024

30 April 2024

How the BJP Wins Over Women

ANIRVAN CHOWDHURY

India has experienced a decade of political churning with little sign of abating. With the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2014, India’s conservative movement has found new wind in its sails. This rejuvenation has sparked a wave of cultural revivalism, reshaped party systems, altered caste equations, and prompted a shift toward mercantilist economic ideologies.

Adding to these winds of change, the past decade and a half has witnessed a remarkable increase in women’s political participation, which has led to a scramble among political parties to consolidate the “women’s vote” with varying degrees of success.

Ashoka Mody argues that India is stunted by a lack of moral leadership

Dan Williams

Last december French authorities detained 303 Indians at Vatry airport. The passengers were on their way from the United Arab Emirates to Nicaragua, a hotspot for would-be migrants who pay touts to get them into America illegally. According to the Pew Research Centre, between 2017 and 2021 Indians were the fastest-growing nationality of illegal migrants entering America, with border-agency data suggesting a possible acceleration since. As the mirage of urban employment at home recedes, large numbers of Indians are risking their lives to slip into labour markets in North America, Europe and Australia.

Strategic Policy Needed for Pakistan’s SMEs

Rameen Shahid

In Pakistan’s intricate economic landscape, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) form the fabric that sustains the entire infrastructure. Their significance cannot be overstated. SMEs represent around 90 percent of businesses globally; there are around 5.2 million in Pakistan. They contribute 40 percent to the GDP, account for 30 percent of exports, and employ over 80 percent of the non-agricultural workforce in Pakistan. However, despite their critical role, economic inefficiencies significantly challenge their progress and realization of SMEs’ potential.

China firms go 'underground' on Russia payments as banks pull back

An appliance maker in southern China is finding it hard to ship its products to Russia, not because of any problems with the gadgets but because China's big banks are throttling payments for such transactions out of concern over U.S. sanctions.

To settle payments for its electrical goods, the Guangdong-based company is considering using currency brokers active along China's border with Russia, said the company's founder, Wang, who asked to be identified only by his family name.

The U.S. has imposed an array of sanctions on Russia and Russian entities since the country invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Farewell to China’s Strategic Support Force. Let’s meet its replacements

MATT BRUZZESE and PETER W. SINGER

The unexpected elimination of the People’s Liberation Army unit that handled space, cyber, and electronic warfare missions is all the more surprising because the Strategic Support Force seemed to just be coming into its own.

On April 19, the PLA announced that three co-equal forces—the Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force, and Information Support Force—would be established to replace the SFF, itself created as part of the broad 2015 reorganization that also birthed the PLA Rocket Force.

Stabilizing the Growing Taiwan Crisis: New Messaging and Understandings are Urgently Needed

Michael D. Swaine

In the leadup to Taiwan’s January 13 presidential election, many observers expected a highly belligerent response from Beijing if the very pro–independence Lai Ching–te were elected, a response perhaps greater than the intensive, prolonged saber rattling and strong rhetoric that followed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s quasi–official trip to the island in 2022.1This, by and large, did not occur.

China’s military elevates information, space and cyber operations in biggest defence shakeup in 9 year

China's military is elevating its information, cyber and space operations in a clear indication of its priorities as it undergoes the biggest reorganisation in nearly a decade.

The People’s Liberation Army unveiled a new strategic branch dedicated to information operations last Friday (Apr 19), called the Information Support Force. Defence Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said its establishment is a “major decision” made for the cause of building a strong military.

China military's biggest shakeup in 9 years adds info, cyber, space unit

YUKIO TAJIMA

China has created new independent People's Liberation Army units for information, space and cyber operations in its most sweeping military reorganization in nearly a decade.

The old Strategic Support Force was broken up and replaced with the three new arms, one of which, the Information Support Force, is responsible for gathering and analyzing information, building communication networks and protecting vital systems.

Xi shakes up China’s military in rethink of how to ‘fight and win’ future wars

Nectar Gan

China has rolled out the largest restructuring of its military in almost a decade, focusing on technology-driven strategic forces equipped for modern warfare, as Beijing vies with Washington for military primacy in a region rife with geopolitical tensions.

In a surprise move last week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping scrapped the Strategic Support Force (SSF), a military branch he created in 2015 to integrate the People’s Liberation Army’s space, cyber, electronic and psychological warfare capabilities as part of a sweeping overhaul of the armed forces.

Why China remains unlikely to invade Taiwan

DENNY ROY

The United States, and Washington DC in particular, is awash with expectations of war against China in the near future, most likely caused by a Chinese decision to forcibly annex Taiwan.

Beijing’s attempts to intimidate the US government into abandoning support for Taiwan have failed.

Plenty of Americans — including senior military officers, academics, and politicians — think Chinese leader Xi Jinping sees war as the best option.

Stuxnet: the first true cyberweapo

Niamh Ancell

In the middle of the desert, suppressed under a thick layer of concrete, lies one of the most ambitious and secretive projects Iran has ever seen, one guarded by an entire army and isolated from the rest of the world.

This place is Natanz, a top-secret nuclear facility approximately 200 miles from Tehran.

This facility has one goal, one objective: to develop Iran’s very first nuclear bomb.

Serious investments are needed to build a nuclear weapon. You’re talking top nuclear physicists, high-tech facilities, advanced equipment, and a lot of research.

The Israel-Iran Conflict Through an Intelligence Len

Relevant, timely, and actionable intelligence plays a pivotal role for organizations with direct or indirect interests in the Middle East, as well as other regions engaged in, or susceptible to, physical conflict. Just as we have provided insights into other global conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas War and the Russia-Ukraine War, this blog aims to utilize our current intelligence, historical data, and expert analysis to offer crucial perspectives—from timelines and contextual background to sophisticated, data-driven analyses—into the evolving conflict between Israel and Iran across cyber, physical, and geopolitical battlefields.

Military genius of Gustavus Adolphus, the ‘Lion of the North

Jessica Evans

Ahh, Gustavus. The name just sounds like a badass, right? Crowned as the "Lion of the North," Gustavus was no typical king. Born during a chilly December in 1594, his rule shifted Sweden from a side character to a leading role in Europe's complex political drama. On top of that, he switched up the game rules of war, leaving a legacy that resonates even today.

From teen king to tactical genius

Just think, you're 17, probably juggling homework and hormones, and boom! You're king. That was Gustavus' story, a royal teen dropped in the deep end of a war with Denmark after his dad, Charles IX, bid his final goodbye in 1611. Not exactly the sweet 17th birthday gift you'd hope for, huh?

NATO’s Real Problem is Europe, Not The U.S.

Ramon Marks

Following the organization’s seventy-fifth anniversary, the conventional wisdom about NATO is that it is threatened by growing U.S. “isolationism.” Critics say that former President Trump could withdraw the United States from NATO if he is reelected. Controversy in Congress delayed supplying $60 billion in additional military aid to Ukraine. Trump has said that “he would encourage” the Russians “to do whatever the hell they want” to allies that fail to meet the 2 percent of GDP defense spending pledge.

Bringing Russia to Its Knees

William Courtney & Philip Wasielewski

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin rants that the West seeks to “dismember and plunder” his country. He is not the first Kremlin leader to allege imagined perfidy. In World War II, Stalin suspected the Allies of delaying a second front so the Nazis could finish off the USSR. Early in the Reagan era, a deluded Kremlin feared the U.S. might launch a nuclear first strike.

Today, Putin’s paranoia and evil intent is so great that last month he ridiculed U.S. warnings of an imminent terrorist attack. Days later ISIS-K killed over 100 people at a concert in Moscow.

HII Delivers Attack Boat New Jersey to Navy

SAM LAGRONE

HII Newport News Shipbuilding has delivered the 23rd Vrginia-class nuclear attack submarine to the U.S. Navy, the company announced in a Thursday statement.

New Jersey (SSN-796) is the fifth Block IV Virginia attack boat and the first designed from the keel up to accommodate mixed gender crews. The boat completed sea trials earlier this year off the coast of Virginia.

“It is a proud day for our entire team when we deliver a high-quality submarine like New Jersey to the fleet,” Jason Ward, HII’s vice president of Virginia-class submarine construction, said in a statement.

Why Federal Agencies Must Learn from the Cyber Safety Review Board Report on Microsoft - OPINION

Sean Moran

The US government spends tens of billions of dollars every year procuring products and services from outside contractors and vendors. These relationships are essential to ensuring government services run smoothly, cash flow continues, and contracts to private sector companies get honored.

However, one government function that cannot be outsourced is oversight – federal agencies are responsible for ensuring that the services they purchase are delivered – on-time, complete, and error-free. However, as a recent report shows, the US government oversight is failing in one critical field – cybersecurity – and the time has come to rethink our approach.

Digital Blitzkrieg: Unveiling Cyber-Logistics Warfare

Chahak Mittal

Imagine you're standing in a bustling city, surrounded by the symphony of commerce. The exchange of goods and the flow of transportation are all around you. This is the heartbeat of our global economy. But what would happen if this heartbeat were to be disrupted? If the very lifeblood of our interconnected world were to falter — or worse, come to a grinding halt?

The consequences would be catastrophic. Imagine empty shelves in grocery stores, gas stations running out of fuel, and hospitals unable to get the supplies they need. Imagine widespread panic and social unrest.

America’s Military Isn’t Providing Enough Bang for the Buck

BING WEST

In the summer of 1944, German V1 drones attacked London, forcing the British to spend four times more on defense. Fortunately, already on the road to defeat, Germany could not exploit its advantage. Fast forward to April of 2024. As happened in 1944, the Iranian launch against Israel of 300 drones and missiles resulted in a disproportionate defense in terms of resources expended. Israeli costs were estimated at $550 million, with the American defensive screen of F-15 aircraft, destroyers, and Patriot anti-missile systems costing at least as much.

In war-battered Gaza, residents grow angry with Hamas

Claire Parker, Heba Farouk Mahfouz, Hazem Balousha and Hajar Harb

More than six months into the war in Gaza and with dimming hopes for a cease-fire deal, Palestinians there are growing more critical of Hamas, which some of them blame for the months-long conflict that has destroyed the territory — and their lives.

The war has displaced most of the Gaza Strip’s population, killed tens of thousands of people and pushed the enclave toward famine, its infrastructure in ruins. The Israeli military waged a punishing campaign to eliminate Hamas after the group, which has ruled Gaza for 17 years, attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing an estimated 1,200 people and abducting more than 250.

Software Backdoor is a Wakeup Call for Cybersecurity

Jeffrey Vagle

As March gave way to April, the cybersecurity community was abuzz with the news that liblzma, a component of the xz open source data compression utility, had been hijacked as a vehicle for code that could create a backdoor into computers that installed and ran the software. It’s likely that you’ve never heard of liblzma or xz, nor spend much time thinking about software compression utilities. But whether you know it or not, you may have actually installed and used xz through its inclusion in other software tools, as is the case with many obscure open source software packages, and that’s a problem for cybersecurity.

Hacking and Healing: Nation-States, Cyber Attacks, and Healthcare Law

Nelson Hardiman, LLP

Modern warfare is no longer restricted to physical battlefields and professional military. Countries like North Korea and Russia have few qualms about using cyberspace to reach well beyond their physical borders to target private enterprise and the civil infrastructure of adversaries. This form of non-kinetic warfare can have a variety of aims. It can involve the “hoovering” of valuable data, theft of cutting-edge technologies, or the dissemination of propaganda or misinformation to influence public opinion and governmental decisions.

Welcome to the TikTok Meltdown

Charlie Warzel

Yesterday evening, the Senate passed a bill—appended to a $95 billion foreign-aid package—that would compel ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, to sell the app within about nine months or face a ban in the United States. President Joe Biden signed the bill this morning, initiating what is likely to be a rushed, chaotic, technologically and logistically complex legal process that will probably please almost no one.

Marine special operators are using fiction to envision the future

MAJ. GEN. MATTHEW TROLLINGER

This vignette, although based in the technological advancements of today, is set in the late 2030s. It’s part of our effort at Marine Forces Special Operations Command to use fiction to peer into the future.

Fictional intelligence, or FICINT, stories, as defined by Ghost Fleet and Burn-In authors Peter Singer and August Cole, represent a way to envision future scenarios with operationally-informed fiction writing. Our command worked with both authors—known for galvanizing discussions about change within the Defense Department—to mentor current Marine Raiders in publishing three FICINT stories that have already helped drive discussion on the evolution of MARSOC into 2040.

At Army’s special-ops school, the biggest changes in a generation

SAM SKOVE

Clustered around a table in a classroom festooned with Ukrainian-language posters, six Army special operations soldiers chatted in Ukrainian with a visitor this month—not without hesitation, but seemingly ready for their upcoming exams.

“I'm very proud of them; they're doing very well,” said a Ukrainian instructor at the Army’s John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School.

29 April 2024

Pakistan’s ‘Illicit’ Connections With Chinese & Iranian Entities Irks The US; Washington Threatens Sanctions

Vaishali Basu Sharma

Meanwhile, Raisi concluded his three-day maiden trip to Pakistan on April 24 and had “productive” talks with the country’s top leadership to combat terrorism and strengthen trade ties.

When asked about Pakistan’s efforts to expand trade ties with Iran, US State Department’s Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said, “Let me say broadly we advise anyone considering business deals with Iran to be aware of the potential risk of sanctions.”

Japan’s AI Diplomacy

Daisuke Akimoto

Prime Minister Kishida Fumio plans to participate in a ministerial council meeting of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) scheduled for May 2 to 3 in Paris. During the meeting, Kishida will reveal Japan’s plan to launch a “friends meeting on AI issues” – a new dialogue framework on governing artificial intelligence (AI) technology.

In recent years, the Japanese government has sought to establish a new global framework to discuss international regulations on the appropriate use of AI technology. Kishida’s participation in the ministerial meeting of the OECD can be regarded as the latest example of Japan’s AI diplomacy.

Xi and Blinken Trade Small Nods Over a Large Gap

Ana Swanson and Vivian Wang

The areas where the United States and China can work together seem to be shrinking fast, and the risks of confrontation are growing. But it was clear on Friday that both countries are trying to salvage what they can.

Preserving some semblance of cooperation — and the difficulty of doing so — was at the heart of a meeting between Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing on Friday. It was the latest effort by the rivals to keep communications open even as disputes escalate over trade, national security and geopolitical frictions.

China’s PLA Boosts Tibetan Recruitment To Fight India At LAC; Gets 1st Woman Fighter Pilot Of Tibetan Origin

Ritu Sharma

China has made it compulsory for every Tibetan family to send one member to the military. The move has come amidst rising tensions with India along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India is home to thousands of Tibetan refugees and the Tibetan government in exile. The Buddhist spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, who fled Tibet, also resides in India.

After undergoing a loyalty test that includes learning the mainland Chinese language and accepting the supremacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over any other belief, Tibetan youths are allowed to join the forces. This is one of the ways to quell the Tibetan rebellion.

China’s Intelligence Shakeup Boosts Information Warfare

MATT BRAZIL

IN A MAJOR SHAKEUP at the top of China’s intelligence and security apparatus, President Xi Jinping last Friday unexpectedly abolished its key eavesdropping and codebreaking agency, the Strategic Support Force (SSF) and replaced it with three new agencies put directly under the Chinese Communist Party’s military oversight body, the Central Military Commission.

It’s the rough political equivalent of President Biden abolishing the NSA and creating three new powerful spy agencies under the direct purview of the White House National Security Council.

A US strategy to trump China in SE Asia

DAVID GEANEY

The US can enhance trust and partnerships in Southeast Asia and change the region’s prevailing attitudes toward the great powers by focusing on three key pillars: intelligence-sharing, presence and multilateralism.

The region is home to key current and potential US allies and partners who are most vulnerable to Chinese influence and power projection, making perceptions particularly crucial during this time of great power competition.

What does Taiwan get from the foreign aid bill and why is the US economy among the biggest winners?

Jonathan Yerushalmy

Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen has praised the US Congress for passing a sweeping foreign aid package this week which included arms support for the island, and has drawn the ire of China.

After months of delays and contentious debate, the bill was signed into law by Joe Biden on Wednesday. Described as $95bn in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, the legislation actually contains provisions that broadly affect many parts of the Asia-Pacific, while also spending billions of dollars at home in America.

China’s Military-Civil Fusion Space Program

Ashwin Prasad and Rakshith Shetty

On April 17, NASA chief Bill Nelson cautioned that China’s “so-called civilian space program is a military program,” emphasizing that the United States is engaged in a space “race” with China. While NASA may have its reasons for securitizing this issue, one cannot overlook China’s rapid advancements in the space sector. China’s objective is to develop and acquire advanced dual-use technology for military purposes and deepen the reform of its national defense science and technology industries, which also serves a broader purpose of strengthening the country’s comprehensive national power.

Hi-Tech, High Risk? Russo-Chinese Cooperation on Emerging Technologies

Roman Kolodii, Dr Giangiuseppe Pili and Jack Crawford

Despite backing Moscow politically and diplomatically, Beijing has declared that it will not send weapons to Russia or Ukraine. Nonetheless, this has not dissuaded Chinese companies from reportedly supplying Russia with assault rifles, body armour and drones via clandestine shipments, nor has it impeded China’s collaboration with Russia on 5G and satellite technologies with abundant (and, often, already utilised) battlefield applications, particularly in Ukraine.

The Xi files: how China spies

Nigel Inkster

Most states spy. In principle there’s nothing to stop them. But China’s demand for intelligence on the rest of the world goes far beyond anything western intelligence agencies would typically gather. It encompasses masses of commercial data and intellectual property and has been described by Keith Alexander, a former head of America’s National Security Agency, as ‘the greatest transfer of wealth in history’. As well as collecting data from government websites, parliamentarians, universities, thinktanks and human rights organisations, China also targets diaspora groups and individuals.

Instead of "EW Panacea," russians Decided They Need Mobile Units Against Drone Crews

Head of the russian Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions (TsKBR), Dmitry Kuzyakin, claims that the russian invasion forces operating in Ukraine need to create "trained teams to combat FPV drones." In his opinion, "FPV countermeasures should be left to specialists" and for this, it is necessary to organize several mobile groups that will fight the operators of FPV drones in specific areas of the frontline.

As Russian Troops Broke Through Ukrainian Lines, Panicky Ukrainian Commanders Had No Choice But To Deploy One Of Their Least-Prepared Brigades

David Axe

This weekend, Russian drones and scouts surveilling the front line just west of the ruins of Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, observed something strange. Ukrainian trenches just east of the village of Ocheretyne, previously manned by soldiers from the Ukrainian army’s elite 47th Mechanized Brigade, were empty.

Seizing the opportunity, the Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade raced several miles along the railroad threading west from Avdiivka and captured most of Ocheretyne—and potentially also Novobakhmutivka, the village south of Ocheretyne.

COULD EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES HAVE HELPED TO AVOID THE TRAGIC KILLING OF HUMANITARIAN WORKERS IN GAZA?

Larry Lewis and Daphné Richemond-Barak

The killing of seven employees of World Central Kitchen in Gaza is as deplorable as it was avoidable. A substantial body of research suggests that technology can mitigate civilian harm in war, particularly mistakes that result in the deaths of humanitarian workers, but unfortunately few of the solutions it points to have been implemented.

World Central Kitchen has been a key player assisting the population of Israel and Gaza since the outbreak of hostilities on October 7, 2023. It had just delivered one hundred tons of food to Gaza when seven of its workers (from the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Poland, along with one Palestinian staff member) were killed in an Israel Defense Forces strike.

America’s Economy Is No. 1. That Means Trouble.

Greg Ip

If you want a single number to capture America’s economic stature, here it is: This year, the U.S. will account for 26.3% of the global gross domestic product, the highest in almost two decades.

That’s based on the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund. According to the IMF, Europe’s share of world GDP has dropped 1.4 percentage points since 2018, and Japan’s by 2.1 points. The U.S. share, by contrast, is up 2.3 points.

Ukraine’s Supreme Commander Is Betting on Drones, Patience and Discipline

Stefan Korshak

Ukraine’s strategy of military counterpunching and making the Kremlin pay in blood for every meter gained seems to have become less crisis management, and more the basic structure of the Syrsky plan.

An ethnic Russian with a background in artillery, and old enough (59) to have fought in Afghanistan for the Soviet Union back in the 1980s, General Oleksander Syrsky on Feb. 8 took over the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) under siege. He replaced Valery Zaluzhny, a general popular with troops and the public.

Russians Doubled Drones on Front Line in Past 3 Months – Ukrainian Pravd

Over the past three months, the Russians have at least doubled the number of drones they’re using on the Russo-Ukrainian front line, Ukrainian Pravda (UP) reported Thursday, April 25.

The number of Russian drones has doubled, and Ukraine’s jammers can’t cope

Not only has the number of drones doubled, but the Russians are modernizing them, making them harder to spot and destroy in time, UP reported, citing sources in the Ukrainian military.

Ukrainians Increasingly Taking War Behind Russian Lines—and Moscow Is Worried

Paul Goble

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his expanded war against Ukraine, it has been commonplace to predict the outcome depending on shifts in the frontlines. Many predict a Russian victory when Russian forces advance and a Ukrainian triumph when Ukrainian units press forward. Neither Russia nor Ukraine, however, will win or lose the war based solely on what happens at the front. Instead, both have sought to come out on top by bringing the war home to the other through attacks on population centers far beyond the lines.

Ukraine pulls US tanks from front lines over Russian drone threats

Tara Copp

Ukraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia, in part because Russian drone warfare has made it too difficult for them to operate without detection or coming under attack, two U.S. military officials told The Associated Press.

The U.S. agreed to send 31 Abrams to Ukraine in January 2023 after an aggressive monthslong campaign by Kyiv arguing that the tanks, which cost about $10 million apiece, were vital to its ability to breach Russian lines.

U.S. Won’t Suspend Aid, for Now, to Israeli Unit Accused of Abuses

Michael Crowley

The Biden administration, which has been under pressure for its support of Israel’s war in Gaza, will not withhold military aid from a troubled military unit accused of human rights violations in the West Bank, so long as Israel continues with steps to hold the members of the unit accountable.

In an undated letter, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told the House speaker, Mike Johnson, that the United States was working with Israel to address charges against the unit, the Netzah Yehuda battalion.

US Issues Stark Warning to Israel Over 'Reckless' Plan

David Brennan

Advocates of further Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank are again risking U.S. ire, as Israel's multifront war against Hamas and other regional militant groups—plus Iran—continues.

Channel 12 News reported this weekend that Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich—the leader of the far-right National Religious Party–Religious Zionism and a longtime advocate of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which are considered illegal under international law—is pushing to legalize 68 outposts in the West Bank that were set up in contravention of Israeli law.

Marine Corps Force Design: In Defense of Chowder II

Gary Anderson

Ian Whitfield is a part time U.S. Army military police officer and a graduate student at Georgetown University. As a cop, he should know how dangerous it is to blunder into a family domestic dispute without knowing the culture he is encountering. Mr. Whitfield decided to weigh in on an internal Marine Corps dispute in a recent piece in this publication. He accuses a group of retired Marine Corps general officers calling themselves "Chowder II" of undermining the current Marine Corps' leadership and damaging the future recruiting efforts of the organization. I disagree with his analysis and would like to explain why.

Elon Musk vs the globalist censors

BRENDAN O'NEILL

I’m in Australia at the moment, which means I am bound by Australian law. If I do something here that this great democratic nation has decreed to be a crime, I’m in hot water. And rightly so. Yet when I jet back to Britain in a week’s time, that will no longer be the case, right? Surely no Aussie lawmaker, no Aussie cop, no Aussie bureaucrat will enjoy jurisdiction over the behaviour of this free Brit some 10,000 miles away? Actually, they might, if Australia’s ‘eSafety commissioner’ has her way.

How Does SOF Incorporate Technology, Evolve, and Simultaneously Compete with 5 Threats Across 5 Domains

INTRODUCTION

The Special Operations Forces Conference (SOFCON) is an annual event organized by the Jackson School of Global Affairs at Yale University. The conference brings together academic and government civilians, military representatives, and industry professionals to explore and address the evolving challenges and opportunities facing the Special Operations Forces (SOF) community. The conference aims to promote dialogue on the strategic role of SOF in countering major power rivals like China and Russia and delves into the optimal functions of SOF within national security strategies.

Scientists achieve 'world-first' technological breakthrough in quest to extract solar power from space: 'Harnessing the power of space to benefit life on Earth'

Jeremiah Budin

Here on Earth, the use of solar energy — a clean, renewable alternative to dirty energy sources like gas and oil — is on the rise, with an ever-increasing number of solar panels that harvest energy from the sun and turn it into electricity.

However, there may be a way to harvest even more energy from the sun by meeting it where it lives: in outer space. One U.K.-based startup, Space Solar, is attempting to place massive solar arrays in orbit to deliver gigawatts of clean energy back to our home planet, Interesting Engineering reported.

Maneuver, Position, Attrition

BIG SERGE

It is undeniably true that war is among man’s oldest preoccupations. The evidence is abundant that war is essentially as old as mankind’s political life, predating cities and sedentary society. It seems that man took recourse to organized violence almost as soon as he grew to a socio-political pattern of life, and from that early period much of human political and technical innovation was spurred on by the relentless drive to fight and win.

28 April 2024

Make No Mistake, Russia Values China Over India

Anita Inder Singh

“Russia has never hurt India’s interests,” India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar recently asserted on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. India and Russia have had a Treaty of Friendship since 1971 and a Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership since 2010. However, India must soon face some hard facts about its longstanding ties with Russia.

New evidence challenges the Pentagon’s account of a horrific attack as the US withdrew from Afghanistan

Nick Paton Walsh and Mick Krever

New video evidence uncovered by CNN significantly undermines two Pentagon investigations, the latest of which was released last week, into an ISIS-K suicide attack outside Kabul airport, during the American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.

The incident was a gruesome coda to America’s longest war, leaving dead 13 United States military service members and about 170 Afghans who were desperately seeking US help to flee the Taliban takeover of Kabul.

Extreme Heatwaves in Bangladesh: The Environmental Governance Perspectives

Sharif Mustajib

Bangladesh has been facing increasing heat waves during summer for the last couple of years. 2024 is the hottest year yet, recording average temperatures of 40 to 42 degrees Celsius in all the districts. The population and biodiversity of the country are at stake due to such an unprecedented catastrophe.

According to news reports, at least four individuals have died from heatstroke, and millions of people have suffered several health implications, including vomiting, diarrhea, heat exhaustion, headache, pneumonia, shortness of breath, dehydration, etc.

China’s Alternative Order

Elizabeth Economy

By now, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition to remake the world is undeniable. He wants to dissolve Washington’s network of alliances and purge what he dismisses as “Western” values from international bodies. He wants to knock the U.S. dollar off its pedestal and eliminate Washington’s chokehold over critical technology. In his new multipolar order, global institutions and norms will be underpinned by Chinese notions of common security and economic development, Chinese values of state-determined political rights, and Chinese technology. China will no longer have to fight for leadership. Its centrality will be guaranteed.

Is the U.S. Preparing to Ban Future LNG Sales to China?

Gabriel B. Collins

A low-profile post by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) may point to a serious strategic change in U.S. policy in trade, energy, and relations with China. So far, the notice has received little or no public coverage or attention despite its potential ramifications—but, combined with other legislative and political signals, it could be a game-changer in the energy landscape.

China harbors ship tied to North Korea-Russia arms transfers, satellite images show

Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom

China is providing moorage for a U.S.-sanctioned Russian cargo ship implicated in North Korean arms transfers to Russia, according to satellite images obtained by Reuters, as U.S. concerns grow over Beijing's support for Moscow's war in Ukraine.

Britain's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank said the Russian vessel Angara, which since August 2023 has moved to Russian ports thousands of containers believed to contain North Korean munitions, has been anchored at a Chinese shipyard in eastern Zhejiang province since February.

The Last Lebanon War

AMIAD COHEN

I have recently concluded a four-month stint on IDF reserve duty in the north, returning home with a bitter sense of missed opportunity. The unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel on April 13 has only heightened this feeling.

When war erupted on Oct. 7, I was called up for reserve duty in Har Dov, in northern Israel, where I served as a tactical officer stationed on the Lebanese border. It was a stark contrast to my usual work at Herut, the Center for Israeli Liberty, but it provided me with a broader perspective and deeper strategic insight.

Assessment of Israeli Strike on Iran near Esfahan

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Victoria Cheng, Spencer Faragasso & Mohammadreza Giveh

The Institute acquired high-resolution Airbus Pleiades Neo satellite images of Iran’s Eighth Shekari Air Base taken shortly after the reported Israeli attack on the S-300 missile defense system deployed at the base. Figure 1 shows an April 19 image showing the damage to a S-300 mobile radar, deployed in a central position to the missile launchers, elevated on a mound. The attack shows the capability of Israeli stand-off weapons to target deep inside Iran, evading detection and air defenses, leaving Iran’s nuclear and military facilities more vulnerable to attack.

How The US Coalition In The Red Sea Is Not Helping – OpEd

Greg Pence

Once again, the United States has formed a military alliance without the sanction of the UN Security Council. This alliance, dubbed “Operation Prosperity Guardian,” aims to ensure the freedom of navigation and counter the Houthis’ assaults. However, the shadow of past military endeavors in the Middle East looms large, casting doubt on the potential success of this coalition.

Historically, similar U.S.-led coalitions have not yielded the intended outcomes. For instance, the “Global War on Terrorism” saw the U.S. and its allies, particularly from Europe and NATO, engage in Afghanistan.

Iran is weaker than we think Despite Obama's mistakes, Israel retains the upper hand

GRAND STRATEGY

It is only now, almost 16 years since Obama first entered the White House with the private determination to end Iran’s “death to America” hostility at all costs, that his Iran policy has achieved the exact opposite of what he had wanted: direct warfare, with US fighters intercepting Iran’s bombardment drones. All along, it was a policy that had two different faces: one perfectly reasonable, and the other perfectly delusional.

The goal of 100K artillery shells per month is back in sight, Army says

SAM SKOVE

The U.S. Army is on a path to triple its monthly production of 155mm shells following the passage of the Ukraine supplemental, its vice chief of staff said today.

“With the supplemental that just thankfully passed last night, we’ll be at 100,000 rounds by next summer,” Gen. James Mingus said at an event hosted by think-tank CSIS.

That’s more than three times the 30,000 shells that the service’s factories are expected to turn out this month, Mingus said, and will represent a sixfold increase since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

War Unbound : Gaza, Ukraine, and the Breakdown of International Law

Oona A. Hathaway

Hamas’s attack on Israel and Israel’s response to it have been a disaster for civilians. In its October 7 massacre, Hamas sought out unarmed Israeli civilians, including women, children, and the elderly, killing close to 1,200 people and taking around 240 hostages. Israel’s subsequent air and ground campaign in Gaza has, as of March 2024, killed more than 30,000 people, an estimated two-thirds of whom were women and children. The Israeli offensive has also displaced some two million people (more than 85 percent of the population of Gaza), left more than a million people at risk of starvation, and damaged or destroyed some 150,000

EUROPE IS LEARNING THE WRONG LESSONS FROM THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE

Sandor Fabian

For more than two years, Western observers have produced a seemingly infinite number of articles and reports trying to derive key lessons from the war in Ukraine and predict their implications for the future of warfare. Beyond the obvious but too often ignored fact that this war is a single and very unique case, drawing meaningful lessons has been further complicated by the fact that most of these studies suffer from confirmation bias due to their authors’ inability to abandon their Western, Clausewitzian analytical lenses and their apparent desire to keep such a theoretical paradigm alive and prove its universal relevance.

The war in Ukraine could reach a decision point by the NATO Summit. Policymakers need to prepare now

Andrew A. Michta

Russia has launched its third major mobilization wave in anticipation of its upcoming spring/summer campaign to take more land in Ukraine. On March 31, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to begin the next conscription drive, setting the target at 150,000 new inductees slated for military service. This came after a decision in July of last year by the Russian Duma to raise the maximum age of conscription from twenty-seven to thirty, significantly increasing the pool of available recruits.

All Powers Great and Small

Shivshankar Menon

The borders that carve the world into today’s states may seem indelible, but expand the time frame, and the lines become much more fluid. It is hard to find an international boundary today that has not shifted in the last two centuries. States are born and disappear; great powers swell, shrink, and vanish. In 1910, roughly 80 percent of the planet belonged to just a handful of European empires—and much of the rest lay in the possession of the Ottoman and Qing dynasties.

Israel says it is poised to move on Rafah

Dan Williams

Israel's military is poised to evacuate Palestinian civilians from Rafah and assault Hamas hold-outs in the southern Gaza Strip city, a senior Israeli defence official said on Wednesday, despite international warnings of a humanitarian catastrophe.

A spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government said Israel was "moving ahead" with a ground operation, but gave no timeline.

UK to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2030, says Sunak

Elizabeth Piper

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Tuesday he would lift defence spending to 2.5% of GDP a year by 2030, saying the British arms industry must be on a "war footing" when the world is at its most dangerous since the Cold War.

Standing alongside NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg, Sunak said Britain would spend an additional 75 billion pounds ($93 billion)over six years to increase the production of munitions and drones, making Britain the second-largest defence spender in NATO.

Biden Has Allowed the Marine Corps to Become Irrelevant

GARY ANDERSON

Under President Biden and his woeful national security team the Marine Corps has fallen from the nation’s premier 911 force to a regional coastal artillery force concentrated on China and a light infantry force of marginal use in a conflict anywhere else. Moreover, our president and what passes these days for military leadership probably do not realize what they have done.

Facebook has ‘interfered’ with US elections 39 times since 2008

Brian Flood

Facebook has "interfered" with elections in the United States at least 39 times since 2008, according to a study by the Media Research Center.

Last month, MRC Free Speech America researchers found that Google "interfered" with elections in the United States 41 times over the last 16 years. The team then set its sights onto Facebook and concluded that although Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg appears to believe in free speech, his company’s actions prove otherwise.

In Ukraine, New American Technology Won the Day. Until It Was Overwhelmed.

David E. Sanger

The idea triggered a full-scale revolt on the Google campus.

Six years ago, the Silicon Valley giant signed a small, $9 million contract to put the skills of a few of its most innovative developers to the task of building an artificial intelligence tool that would help the military detect potential targets on the battlefield using drone footage.

Engineers and other Google employees argued that the company should have nothing to do with Project Maven, even if it was designed to help the military discern between civilians and militants.

The West Is Hastening Its Own Decline

BRAHMA CHELLANEY

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago, the West has desperately sought ways to punish Russia without harming itself in the process. It has mostly failed.

So far, not even unprecedented sanctions have derailed Russia’s economy, let alone compelled the Kremlin to change its behavior. Instead, Russia has pivoted to a war economy: it now produces nearly three times as many munitions as NATO, including more missiles than it was producing before the war began.

World’s first full-fledged cyber war raging since 2022

DAVID KIRICHENKO

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked the start of what should be termed – in view of the unprecedented scale and sophistication of the cyber operations that accompanied Russia’s military actions – the world’s first cyber war.

It gave the world insight into how cyber operations would be integrated with the physical battlefield going forward.

Moreover, Ukraine showcased to the international community not only the critical importance of robust cyber defenses but also the complexity involved in their implementation.

AI Needs UN Oversight

PETER G. KIRCHSCHLÄGER

Many scientists and tech leaders have sounded the alarm about artificial intelligence in recent years, issuing dire warnings not heard since the advent of the nuclear age. Elon Musk, for example, has said that “AI is far more dangerous than nukes,” prompting him to ask an important question: “[W]hy do we have no regulatory oversight? This is insane.”

The late Stephen Hawking made a similar point: “Unless we learn how to prepare for, and avoid, the potential risks, AI could be the worst event in the history of our civilization. It brings dangers, like powerful autonomous weapons, or new ways for the few to oppress the many.”

The man who made Belleau Wood — and the Marine Corps — immortal

Claire Barrett

“I am up at the front and entering Belleau Wood with the U.S. Marines.”

And with that final dispatch, war correspondent Floyd Gibbons — armed with nothing but his pen and paper — strolled into a melee of artillery and machine gun fire.

This dispatch would later help to shape the ethos of the United States Marine Corps and more than a century on, define the public’s view of the “Devil Dogs.”

A seasoned reporter for the Chicago Tribune, the charismatic Gibbons had reported on the Pancho Villa expedition in 1916 and the sinking of the RMS Laconia in 1917 before accepting his latest assignment as one of only 36 American reporters officially accredited in World War I.

Space Force EW unit working to integrate new weapon systems, intel personnel

THERESA HITCHENS

The Space Force’s new(ish) Integrated Mission Delta (IMD) responsible for electromagnetic warfare (EW), Delta 3, is working to expand the portfolio of weapon systems within its area of responsibility, as well as to bring on board intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance experts from elsewhere in the service, according to the unit’s commander.

27 April 2024

US Slams India For Serious Rights Violations – Analysis

P. K. Balachandran

Even as India is in the midst of parliamentary elections in which human rights is a key issue

In its report on the human rights situation in India in 2023, the US State Department paints an appalling picture. The report for 2023 was released by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington on April 22, even as India is in the midst of its parliamentary elections where human rights are a key issue.

The report begins with the conflict between the Kuki and Meitei ethnic groups in India’s north eastern state of Manipur that resulted in least 175 deaths and the displacement of more than 60,000 people between May 3 and November 15.

Why a Bhutan-India Tourism Meeting Excited Entrepreneurs in Nepal

Birat Anupam

Bhutan’s Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay was in India last month. He addressed the “captains of Indian industries” in Delhi on March 15, in an event organized by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).

In the function, titled “India-Bhutan Tourism: Expanding Horizons,” an Indian industry leader raised the issue of not just Indo-Bhutan bilateral tourism collaboration but also the bright prospects for multilateral and regional tourism collaboration among the South Asian countries.

TikTok May Be Banned in the US. Here’s What Happened When India Did It.

Krutika Pathi

The hugely popular Chinese app TikTok may be forced out of the United States, where a measure to outlaw the video-sharing app has won congressional approval and is on its way to President Joe Biden for his signature.

In India, the app was banned nearly four years ago. Here’s what happened.

Why Did India Ban TikTok?

In June 2020, TikTok users in India bid goodbye to the app, which is operated by Chinese internet firm ByteDance. New Delhi suddenly banned the popular app, alongside dozens other Chinese apps, following a military clash along the China-Indian border.