The Defense Intelligence Agency on the Iranian-backed Drone Power of Russia and the Houthis

DANIEL PEREIRA

Source Link

Two recently declassified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) reports extensively detail the Iranian-backed drone capabilities fueling the reconfiguration of global warfare into a drone swarm architecture – fueling what John Robb has framed as the future: asymmetric, non-nation-state kinetic capabilities organized into drone swarms enhancing the ability for warfighting capabilities “networked tribes” and “global guerrillas” usurping that of traditional military doctrine and the monopoly on the threat of violent conflict traditionally held exclusively by nation-states.

A summary of two DIA report as reported at C4ISRNET: The Defense Intelligence Agency [recently] published a report documenting how Iran arms Houthi militants, highlighting among other weaponry the Waid 1 and 2 drones. The DIA said they share distinctive features — pitot tubes, fuselages, stubby nose cones — with Iran’s Shahed-131 and -136, which have a range of more than 1,000 miles.

Houthi rebels based in Yemen are equipped with the same Iranian-sourced attack drones as Russian troops invading Ukraine, according to reports from a U.S. intelligence agency. Both forces have used unmanned aerial vehicles to attack from afar and modernize their arsenals. Since October, the U.S. Navy has shot down dozens of one-way drones bound for the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, while the Ukrainian military many miles away contends with what has been described as a drone war in Eastern Europe.

Another DIA study published in August said Russia’s Geran-1 and -2, although rebranded, were of Iranian origin for similar reasons. The findings were based on retrieved parts as well as visual comparison of publicly available images. Parades and other military showcases provide analysts a chance to scour foreign firepower. “The Waid 2 wing stabilizers displayed by the Houthis in Yemen are consistent with the size and shape of the winglets on the Shahed-136 displayed in Iran and debris from the Geran-2 — the Russian name for the Shahed-136 — recovered after Russian attacks in Ukraine,” the DIA assessment stated.

Asked about the proliferation of Iranian drones among two different forces in two different regions, a DIA spokesperson said all the information the agency has “on this topic is in the report and the accompanying release.”

From the DIA: Analysis confirms that Houthi forces have employed various Iranian-origin missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles against military and civilian targets throughout the region, according to an unclassified report released today by the Defense Intelligence Agency. Iran: Enabling Houthi Attacks Across the Middle East provides a comparative analysis of publicly available images of Iranian missiles and UAVs to those displayed and employed by Houthi forces in Yemen to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea and civilian and port infrastructure across the region.

The report highlights the evolving and strengthening relationship between the Houthis and Iran. Since 2014, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) has provided the Houthis a growing arsenal of sophisticated weapons and training. Iran’s aid has enabled the Houthis to conduct a campaign of missile and UAV attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea since November 2023, threatening freedom of navigation and international commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways.

DIA has released the report as part of ongoing transparency efforts to enhance public understanding of the Defense Intelligence Agency’s mission and to provide insights on Department of Defense and national security issues. Information within the report is considered current as of January 17, 2024.

Also directly from the DIA: The Defense Intelligence Agency [released] an update to its unclassified report, “Iranian UAVs in Ukraine: A Visual Comparison.”

The original unclassified report, released by DIA in February [2023], confirmed Russia’s use of various lethal Iranian UAVs against Ukraine. These UAVs have become a critical part of Russia’s war in Ukraine and are being used to attack critical infrastructure. The update features additional findings and declassified images to disprove Iran’s continued claims that Russia is not using its UAVs in Ukraine. The updated report draws from DIA’s ongoing display of components from several Iranian-produced UAVs recovered from both Ukraine and Iraq. The display includes portions of Shahed-131 UAVs used by Russia against Ukraine and Shahed-131 UAVs recovered in Iraq, including an attack Iran publicly claimed. The display marks the first time these models have been displayed in the same place. This is also the first public showing of the newly declassified Shahed-101, a smaller Iranian UAV recovered in Iraq. DIA’s UAV display proves that while these UAVs were recovered thousands of miles apart, they share a common point of origin: Iran.

Multiple media outlets, foreign delegations, and other government agencies have visited the display to discuss the analysis with DIA’s subject matter experts and gain a better understanding of the growing threat from these systems. These components, obtained during sensitive site exploitation…”

What Next?

The thinking and framing of John Robb has been featured here at OODA Loop and he has been a guest on the OODAcast multiple times. The implications of drone swarms and networked tribalism, particularly in the context of John Robb’s work, represent a paradigm shift in the future of warfare that cannot be overstated. Robb’s exploration of open-source warfare and the concept of networked tribes provides a prescient framework for understanding how non-state actors leverage technology and social networks to exert influence and conduct operations with a level of agility and adaptability that traditional military structures struggle to match.

Drone Swarms and Networked Tribalism

The potential for drone swarms to be used in non-military contexts, such as surveillance, espionage, or even targeted political assassinations, introduces a new dimension of threat that transcends the traditional boundaries of warfare.

Drone swarms, as a technological evolution, embody the principle of decentralized, autonomous capability that can be leveraged for both conventional and unconventional warfare. The development and operational deployment of drone swarms signify a leap in warfare technology, enabling a multitude of small, unmanned systems to act in concert towards a unified objective without direct human intervention. This capability, when combined with the principles of networked tribalism, suggests a future where warfare is increasingly characterized by the use of highly adaptable, technologically sophisticated non-state actors capable of challenging state actors in asymmetric ways.

The strategic implications of this shift are profound:

1. The democratization of drone technology and the principles of networked tribalism mean that the barrier to entry for engaging in sophisticated warfare tactics is lower than ever. Non-state actors, leveraging the collective intelligence and resources of a globally connected network, can potentially deploy drone swarms in ways that are difficult to predict and counter using traditional defense mechanisms. This unpredictability, coupled with the potential for anonymity and deniability, complicates the strategic calculus for nation-states.
2. The operational implications of drone swarms in the context of networked tribalism extend beyond the battlefield. The psychological impact of facing an adversary that can strike with precision and coordination, without a clear command structure or identifiable base of operations, can have a demoralizing effect on conventional forces
3. The potential for drone swarms to be used in non-military contexts, such as surveillance, espionage, or even targeted political assassinations, introduces a new dimension of threat that transcends the traditional boundaries of warfare.

Global Guerrillas

In the modern era, cyberspace has emerged as a domain where similar principles apply, allowing smaller actors to achieve outsized impacts on states and the international system.

The concept of global guerrillas, a term notably popularized by John Robb in his exploration of future conflict landscapes, represents a significant evolution in the nature of warfare and security challenges. This notion extends beyond traditional forms of insurgency or terrorism, encapsulating a world where non-state actors, leveraging technology and networked organizational structures, can exert disproportionate influence on national and international affairs:

• Global guerrillas operate within a framework that is markedly decentralized, exploiting the interconnectedness and vulnerabilities inherent in our globalized world. Their operations are characterized by fluidity, with a focus on disrupting the systems that underpin state power and societal stability. This approach is emblematic of a broader shift towards asymmetric warfare, where the aim is not to directly confront state militaries on the battlefield but to erode the fabric of the state and its ability to govern effectively.
• The historical context provides a rich tapestry of examples where non-state actors have utilized mobility, terrain, and unconventional tactics to challenge more organized, albeit less agile, state militaries. The Mongols, Goths, and Huns, for instance, demonstrated the effectiveness of such strategies in their encroachments upon settled territories.
• In the modern era, cyberspace has emerged as a domain where similar principles apply, allowing smaller actors to achieve outsized impacts on states and the international system.

As we consider the future of warfare, it becomes clear that understanding and integrating the principles of networked tribalism and the capabilities of drone swarms into our strategic and tactical planning is not just advantageous—it is imperative.

The are broad but vital implications of Robb’s “global guerrillas” framing for the future of warfare and security:

1. As these actors continue to harness the power of technology, social networks, and the principles of networked tribalism, the challenges they pose will become increasingly complex and multifaceted. This necessitates a reevaluation of traditional security paradigms and the development of strategies that are as adaptive and innovative as the threats we face.
2. In this evolving landscape, the resilience of communities, nations, and international institutions will be tested. The ability to anticipate, mitigate, and respond to the actions of global guerrillas will be paramount. This will require not only technological solutions but also a deeper understanding of the social, economic, and political dynamics that fuel these actors.

Given these considerations, the intersection of drone swarms, networked tribalism, and John Robb’s work on global guerrillas presents a compelling lens through which to view the future of warfare. It prompts us to rethink our approaches to security, defense, and international cooperation in an era where the lines between war and peace, combatant and non-combatant, are increasingly blurred.

Robb’s work offers critical insights into how these dynamics are likely to evolve. His analysis underscores the importance of adaptability, resilience, and innovation in countering the threats posed by decentralized, technologically empowered non-state actors.

As we consider the future of warfare, it becomes clear that understanding and integrating the principles of networked tribalism and the capabilities of drone swarms into our strategic and tactical planning is not just advantageous—it is imperative.

The Network Swarm Attack on Israel and the Escalating Global Networked War: Intelligence Failure? Black Swan? Gray Rhino? Systemic Failure? An entropic, sclerotic Israeli political system? The geopolitical and regional power context for the recent surprise, large scale and violent Hamas attack of Israel may prove to be “all of the above”. What is clear is the attack was designed as a large scale, kinetic and digital “network swarm” – which now opens up a new, “formal” kinetic front in the ongoing, global networked war in the Middle East. Swarm dynamics are a crucial mental model – which we apply here to the Hamas network swarm attack of Israel.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine prompts global repercussions on supply chains and cybersecurity. This act highlights potential threats from nations like China and could shift defense postures, especially in countries like Japan. See: Russia Threat Brief

Israel and Gaza: The horrors of war in the region are also giving rise to uncertainty in markets, but for now it seems the war will not spread throughout the Middle East. There were many initiatives between Israel and Arab/Persian nations that have been stalled due to the war.

Economic Weakness in China: China’s economy faces dim prospects exacerbated by disasters, COVID-19, and geopolitical tensions. Amid limited financial transparency, some indicators suggest China’s economic growth is severely stunted, impacting global economic stability. See: China Threat Brief

Networked Extremism: The digital era enables extremists worldwide to collaborate, share strategies, and self-radicalize. Meanwhile, advanced technologies empower criminals, making corruption and crime interwoven challenges for global societies. See: Converging Insurgency, Crime and Corruption

Food Security and Inflation: Food security is emerging as a major geopolitical concern, with droughts and geopolitical tensions exacerbating the issue. Inflation, directly linked to food security, is spurring political unrest in several countries. See: Food Security

Demographic Time Bomb: Industrialized nations face demographic challenges, with a growing elderly population outnumbering the working-age demographic. Countries like Japan and China are at the forefront, feeling the economic and social ramifications of an aging society. See: Global Risks and Geopolitical Sensemaking

Geopolitical-Cyber Risk Nexus: The interconnectivity brought by the Internet has made regional issues affect global cyberspace. Now, every significant event has cyber implications, making it imperative for leaders to recognize and act upon the symbiosis between geopolitical and cyber risks. See The Cyber Threat

Embracing Corporate Intelligence and Scenario Planning in an Uncertain Age: Apart from traditional competitive challenges, businesses also confront external threats, many of which are unpredictable. This environment amplifies the significance of Scenario Planning. It enables leaders to envision varied futures, thereby identifying potential risks and opportunities. All organizations, regardless of their size, should allocate time to refine their understanding of the current risk landscape and adapt their strategies. See: Scenario Planning