DAVID KIRICHENKO
Introduction
As Russian tanks began rolling into Ukraine and bombs fell across the country in February 2022, Europe bore witness to the largest conflict on European soil since World War II. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine wasn’t limited to physical operations; it also marked the start of the first all-out cyber war. It is important for the West to quickly study the lessons learned so far from this cyber war between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, it is crucial to help the Ukrainians expand their capabilities on the cyber front, just as military assistance is needed on the physical battlefield. By applying these lessons, the UK and the West can strengthen their cyber defences and better prepare allies, such as Taiwan, for future cyber conflicts.
As the world became digitised and the Kremlin grew in its revisionist ambitions, Russia began using cyberattacks as a new tool to achieve its political aims. Starting in Estonia in 2007 to punish the country for what it deemed anti-Russia behaviour, Russia then waged cyberattacks against Georgia to accompany its physical attack on the country. It used Ukraine as a testing ground for cyber weapons before ultimately beginning the first all-out cyber war against Ukraine in February 2022. While Ukraine survived many of the most devastating attacks on critical infrastructure, the cyber war between Israel and Iran has also shown the extremes that these attacks can go to, such as the attack on Iran’s nuclear power plant.
While a successful coalition of Western governments and tech companies has played a vital role in keeping Ukraine's cyber defences resilient, much like on the physical battlefield, without offensive support, Ukraine is limited in its ability to match and overwhelm Russian cyberattacks. At the start of the invasion, Russia attempted to knock out vital communication systems for the Ukrainian military with an attack on Viasat satellites, marking its most damaging attack of the war so far on Ukraine’s telecom provider, Kyivstar. The intensity of the Russian cyberattacks is growing as the war drags on, and Ukraine should be armed to degrade Russia’s offensive cyber capabilities. Destroying the enemy’s ability to wage war is a key principle in warfare, whether conventional or cyber.
Giving support on cyber capabilities is important now because this is the first war with integrated cyber and physical strikes on the battlefield and there are many lessons to learn for future wars. While Russia has not integrated both well, Ukraine should be given more opportunities to execute properly with Western backing.
If the West fails to properly support Ukraine in this cyber war, it will also undermine its own ability to fight on the battlefield in the future. It further undermines the West’s investment in conventional armaments if physical operations are not supported by cyber. What happens on the cyber front isn’t merely related to Ukraine and Russia, but has a direct impact on the West because Russia has already been waging hybrid warfare for years. As cyber remains a grey area, Russia will continue to increase its attacks on the West, especially as the world becomes even more digitally dependent. Thus, reinforcing Ukraine’s cyber capabilities not only addresses immediate threats but also strategically curbs Russia’s capabilities.
It is in the interests of the West to help give Ukraine the cyber weaponry that is needed to achieve the West’s security interests. This includes sharing, prior to public disclosure, information on zero-day vulnerabilities – known to Western technology firms and intelligence agencies – with Ukraine. Such intelligence sharing would enable Ukraine to strategically target Russia’s economic and infrastructural capacities, undermining its war efforts. 1 Tech companies and governments in the West should carefully assess the risks and, where suitable, contemplate supplying intelligence to Ukraine. Moreover, as Western tech companies increasingly withdraw from Russia, the opportunity for action will expand. Russia will be compelled to rely more heavily on its internal technology resources, thereby reducing the potential for collateral damage to the West from exploiting vulnerabilities in Russian systems.
Giving Ukraine the right vulnerabilities to exploit will also provide the West with an opportunity to study what is most effective in cyber war and to improve the West’s own cyber defences. Finally, assisting Ukraine’s cyber defence will help to begin defining cyber red lines for NATO which do not exist as Russia continues to push the boundaries and attack critical infrastructure. If Ukraine is able to wage larger-scale cyber campaigns against Russia with Western support effectively, it could serve to deter other nation states like China, Iran and North Korea from launching devastating cyberattacks in the future.
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