RICHARD JAVAD HEYDARIAN
Just as Australia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) finalized their joint communique after a special summit in Melbourne this week, yet another major incident erupted in the South China Sea.
According to Philippine authorities, an armada of China Coast Guard (CCG) and Chinese maritime militia vessels “harassed, blocked, deployed water cannons, and executed maneuvers in another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct” a Philippine Navy resupply mission to the hotly contested Second Thomas Shoal.
The collision caused minor structural damages to the Philippine patrol vessel BRP Sindangan. But, for the first in recent memory, multiple Filipino officers sustained injuries after Chinese coast guard vessels simultaneously fired water cannons at their resupply vessel.
The violent incident prompted open discussions in Manila on whether it should call for direct American military assistance under the 1951 Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).
In a statement, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller quickly affirmed that the MDT “extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea.”
However, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr maintained that the recent clashes didn’t meet the threshold for a joint military response.
“I do not think that it is a time or the reason to invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty. However, we continue to view with great alarm this continuing dangerous maneuvers and dangerous actions that are being done against our seamen, our Coast Guard,” Marcos Jr said.
ASEAN leaders, gathered at the special summit in Melbourne, declined to directly call out China’s actions, but instead just “encourage[d] all countries to avoid any unilateral actions that endanger peace, security and stability in the region.”
This stood in stark contrast to the positions of both the Philippines as well as host nation Australia, which earlier warned against inaction before “destabilizing, provocative and coercive actions”, since “[w]hat happens in the South China Sea, in the Taiwan Strait, in the Mekong subregion, across the Indo-Pacific, affects us all.”
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Australian leader Anthony Albanese during recent meeting in Australia.
The latest crisis not only reinforces questions over ASEAN’s claim to “centrality” in shaping regional affairs but also alienates founding members such as the Philippines, which has struggled to get any concrete support from any of its immediate neighbors over the South China Sea disputes.
Over the past year, China has repeatedly resorted to coercive means to impose its will in the contested maritime area. Late last year, China water cannoned Philippine resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal on at least two occasions.
This time, however, China’s actions were more than typical “gray zone” tactics, which mainly entailed the shadowing and swarming of Philippine vessels by Chinese maritime forces, since they led to injury among Philippine Navy officers, including a naval chief, as well as structural damage to a Philippine navy vessel.
In a separate incident, a Philippine Coast Guard vessel also narrowly avoided direct collision with an approaching Chinese vessel.
“This time, they damaged the cargo ship and caused some injury to some of our seamen and I think that we cannot view this any way but in the most serious way,” Marcos Jr said on the sidelines of the Melbourne summit, underscoring the growing risk of accidental clashes and all-out armed confrontation.
“We worry in the Philippines because it could come from, not a strategic decision by anyone saying, ‘OK, we’re going to war,’ but just by some servicemen making a mistake or some action that’s misunderstood,” Marcos added.
Jonathan Malaya, a spokesman for the Philippine National Security Council, accused China of “deliberately stirring up trouble and maliciously inciting hype” in order to intimidate the Philippines.
Enraged by the incident, the Philippine government summoned Zhou Zhiyong, China’s deputy chief of mission in Manila, to protest Chinese maritime forces’ “aggressive actions” and order them to leave waters around the Second Thomas Shoal, a low-tide elevation that falls within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and hosts a de facto Philippine Marines base.
“We demand that they match their words with actions in order to manage the disputes properly. They must first stop their harassment and bullying of legitimate Philippine operations,” Malaya said in a press briefing this week, underscoring growing alarm in Manila over China’s rising risk appetite for a possible armed confrontation.
Aside from the US, other major powers were also quick to condemn China’s most recent actions and express solidarity with the Philippines.
“Japan will continue to stand with the Philippines and cooperate with like-minded countries to maintain the peace and stability in the region,” the Japanese embassy in Manila said in a statement, expressing its “grave concern on the repeated dangerous actions” by China in the disputed waters.
Laure Beaufils, the UK Ambassador to the Philippines, said on her social media account, “The United Kingdom condemns today’s unsafe actions by Chinese vessels against the Philippines in Second Thomas Shoal, which resulted in injuries. The United Kingdom reiterates its opposition to any action which raises tensions & endangers lives, threatening regional peace & stability. We call for adherence to UNCLOS.”
Interestingly, even Taipei, which has identical claims to China in the disputed areas, expressed support for the Philippines.
“The ministry reiterates its opposition to any activity that jeopardizes security in the South China Sea or poses harm to the region’s peace, stability and status quo, while calling on both parties to follow the provisions of international law, exercise restraint and avoid the use of force,” the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.
Australia, the host of the special summit in Melbourne this week, also expressed support for the Philippines.
“Discussing peace and stability at the #ASEAN50Aus Summit. Australia shares Philippines’ concerns about dangerous actions by China’s vessels at Second Thomas Shoal today,” Australian Ambassador H K Yu to Manila said on X. “We call for restraint and respect for international law, particularly UNCLOS [United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea],” she added.
In stark contrast, however, key ASEAN nations, including one claimant state, seemed far more concerned with maintaining cordial ties with China. During the Australia-ASEAN Summit, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim steered clear of the ongoing disputes.
“If they have problems with China, they should not impose them upon us. We do not have a problem with China,” the Malaysian leader said during a joint press conference with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese earlier this week.
“They have levied some criticisms against us for giving additional focus to China. Right now, China seems to be the leading investor in Malaysia,” he added while implying that his host and other like-minded nations were engaged in “Sinophobia” rather than responsible statesmanship.
A member of the Philippine Coast Guard while being shadowed by a Chinese coast guard ship at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea.
Thanks to vehement opposition by Beijing-friendly ASEAN members, the joint Australia-ASEAN statement was largely a watered-down version of what the Philippines had advocated.
It also omitted Australia’s initial proposal to call on “both parties” (China and the Philippines) to abide by the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal Ruling at The Hague, which rejected Beijing’s expansive claims in the area.
The latest crisis in the South China Sea, therefore, has exposed profound divisions in the region, with the Philippines gaining far more support from faraway allies and partners than any of its ASEAN neighbors.
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