Sam Rosenberg
As the world marks the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, lights are blinking red in Kyiv. Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer offensive petered out with disappointing results, and Russia’s relentless attacks, particularly around Avdiivka, echo the grim tactics seen in Bakhmut, where “meat wave” assaults took a heavy toll on resource-strapped Ukrainian defenders. Amid uncertainty around US security assistance and facing critical shortages in personnel and ammunition, Ukraine is also navigating a significant leadership transition within its armed forces.
Yet, despite the challenges facing Ukraine’s conventional units, Kyiv’s irregular tactics have carved out significant successes, particularly in information and sabotage operations. And as deadlock persists on the frontlines, with no immediate prospect of a decisive edge for either Russia or Ukraine, the role of irregular warfare may become increasingly central to the war’s eventual outcome.
Over the past two years, the Irregular Warfare Initiative has produced in-depth articles, podcasts, and events that analyze these tactics and their wider implications. As we reflect on this anniversary, I take stock of our efforts and set our sights on the year ahead. Our aim since the outbreak of the wider war has been threefold: to grasp the war’s trajectory, highlight lesser-known aspects of the conflict, and offer fresh insights to those on the ground and in policy circles.
Understanding the Course of the War
Our podcast guests and authors have provided important insights into how the war has evolved from a low-level hybrid conflict in 2014 to the largest war in Europe in eighty years, following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Just a few days after Putin’s invasion began, we enlisted Shashank Joshi from The Economist and Rob Person from West Point to examine how historical events and Russian cultural myths shape Moscow’s worldview. During the first summer of the full-scale war, we brought in Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses and Kent DeBenedictis, a US Army Special Forces officer and author of the book Russian ‘Hybrid Warfare,’ for a two-part discussion on Ukrainian and Russian approaches to irregular warfare. Taking a broader view of the war, retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges and Ravi Agrawal, editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy, recently joined the podcast to discuss the evolution of European defense relations and how policies toward Ukraine have changed from before the war to now.
Our authors have contributed crucial analysis, too. In an article last fall, National Defense University’s Sean McFate attributed Russian failures early in the war to an overreliance on traditional warfare no longer suited to the modern battlefield. In a piece written in June 2022, retired US Marine Colonel and former IWI podcast host Andrew Milburn foreshadowed many of the challenges Ukraine is currently facing. Highlighting inadequate training time for recruits, the rapid reduction of forces due to high casualty rates, and the urgent need for more weaponry, Milburn argued that time is a luxury that Kyiv does not have – a conclusion that is, unfortunately, proving more accurate every day.
Our team extended its reach beyond articles and podcasts to expert panels exploring key developments in the war. During the first summer of full-scale fighting, IWI convened defense researchers Byron Harper, James Kiras, and Ulrica Peterson and the deputy commander of the U.S. Army’s Special Operations Command, Major General Patrick Roberson, to examine how societies employ a mix of peaceful and aggressive actions to fight against foreign control, using Ukrainian resistance against Russia as a key example. With NATO’s Resistance Operating Concept as a foundation, the panel expanded on their points in a September 2022 article. Later that same fall, IWI assembled another notable panel, including Nataliya Bugayova from the Institute for the Study of War, LTG Tony Fletcher, commander of NATO Special Operations Forces, and defense officials from Finland and Estonia. A few weeks later, we teamed up with Northwestern University for a session with analysts Michael Kofman and John Spencer, and academics Will Reno, Alexandra Chinchilla, and Jahara Matisek. They covered a range of topics, including Ukraine’s strategy for dealing with the economic and energy challenges caused by Russia’s invasion. Our most recent engagement expanded beyond Ukraine and focused on Russian influence operations in Moldova. Later this month, our team will sit down with retired General and former CIA director David Petraeus to discuss the war and his recent book.
Spotlighting the Unseen
We take pride in publishing articles that highlight lesser-known aspects of the war. In this vein, Dr. Josh Roose, a political sociologist at Australia’s Deakin University, and IWI’s own Jacob Ware offered a compelling analysis of the conflict’s gender dynamics. They contrast Putin’s deliberate use of hypermasculinity in the invasion with Ukraine’s successful inclusion of women, a move that not only challenged traditional gender norms but also helped strengthen the country’s ability to resist Russian attacks. While not directly about the war in Ukraine, US Army officer Rick Chersicla’s article about Russian and Belarusian attempts to weaponize migration tackles an important, if underappreciated indirect approach employed by Putin to distract Western leaders.
Information and cyber operations have been recurring themes within the IWI community. Last April, our podcast team explored both topics, featuring insights from experts Gavin Wilde and Jason Kikta on Ukraine’s cyber resilience and Russia’s cyber strategy. Dan Grobarick, a research associate at the US Naval War College, recently examined how Ukraine has employed information and influence operations to garner international backing and increased military aid. IIlya Varzhanskyi, a member of Ukraine’s armed forces and Peter Schrijver, a doctoral researcher at the Netherlands Defence Academy, assessed the role of information warfare in Chechnya’s quest for independence and its connection to Ukraine’s struggle against Russia. Defense technologist Wes Bryant discussed how Elon Musk’s decision not to enable Starlink for Ukrainian military operations in Crimea illustrates the significant influence private CEOs can have on international conflicts.
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