Rami Niranjan Desai
The Rohingya insurgent group may just be following a strategy of wait and watch, allowing other ethnic armed organisations to fight this battle for them. Their silence could also mean their consolidation.A recent advisory issued by the Ministry of External Affairs asked all Indian citizens to leave the Rakhine state in Myanmar immediately, given the deteriorating situation in the country. Myanmar has been in a state of conflict since the Tatmadaw -- Myanmar’s military -- took over from the democratically elected National League of Democracy (NLD) in February 2021.
However, it was only in 2023 with the launch of Operations 1027 and 1107 (both representing the month and date of the launches) that the conflict became a full-blown civil war-like situation. In a definitive shift in the conflict, several of Myanmar’s ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) put their differences aside to launch a joint attack on military installations and key outposts.
With the success of Operation 1027 led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance -- comprising the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) -- many of the remaining EAOs led by the Karenni National People’s Liberation Front, the Karenni Army, and the Karenni Nationalities Defence Force joined the offensive with Operation 1107.
India saw the spillover of the conflict in Manipur and Mizoram with the Chin National Army (CNA), capturing key towns and military installations across India’s borders with the key port town of Paletwa in Chin state falling into the hands of the Arakan Army operating from Rakhine state, jeopardising India’s ambitious Kaladan Multimodal Project.
However, in the ongoing offensive against the Tatmadaw, what should be of larger concern to India is not its projects but the conspicuous absence of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). The Rohingya insurgent group known to be active in the Rakhine state has not been involved between the ethnic armed organisations and the Tatmadaw. There has been a near complete absence, which is especially odd considering the well-known animosity between the Rohingyas and the Tatmadaw.
The extent of Tatmadaw’s intolerance against the Rohingyas was evident when they employed the infamous “four cuts strategy” against them, which included isolation and deprivation of humanitarian aid. It was used in 2017 when the democratic dispensation was in power, whose components have now established the National Unity Government (NUG).
The Rohingyas have historically had a contentious relationship with not just the Tatmadaw but also with Hindus and India. As early as November 3, 1947, in a letter from TG Sanjevi, the first Director of the Intelligence Bureau of India, and Vishnu Shankar, private secretary to the then Home Affairs of India Sardar Patel, Sanjevi flagged his concern, writing that “Arakan Muslims are being incited to revolt against the present Burmese government, and arms and ammunition are being supplied to them from various dumps. The Muslim League leaders in East Bengal appear to have contacted them and enlisted their support to smuggle arms and ammunition into East Bengal. The Arakan Muslims are believed to have promised to create trouble on the borders of India when the time comes”. Until 1990, the Rakhine state was known as Arakan.
In 2017, a cluster of Hindu villages known as Kha MaungSeik were attacked by ARSA. Ninety-nine villagers were massacred and mass graves containing the corpses of 45 Hindus, mostly women and children, were discovered. Further, the government of India in a 15-page affidavit filed in the Supreme Court stated that it has intelligence inputs of links between some Rohingya Muslims and Pakistan’s ISI and Islamic State, making them a serious security threat to India.
Reports suggest that ARSA has ties to Rohingyas in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. ARSA, previously known as Harakat al-Yaqin (HAY), is also led by a Pakistani national, Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi. Former joint director of the Intelligence Bureau MK Dhar wrote in his book, ‘Open Secrets: India’s Intelligence Unveiled’, that there was no doubt that ISI-Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Saudi-Al-Qaeda had engineered the Rohingya crisis as a means for global jihad. And it was in 2013, according to media reports, that Syed Abdul Karim “Tunda”, a LeT terrorist and top bomb maker, admitted that he had promised chief Hafiz Saeed that he would train Rohingyas in making bombs to attack India.
The links between ARSA, Rohingya Muslims, terror outfits, and the ISI make ARSA’s silence in Myanmar’s conflict disturbing. Their silence could mean their consolidation. While observers and the Tatmadaw itself are distracted by the ongoing conflict, ARSA may be waiting for the country to split -- a warning that has already been given by Myanmar President Myint Swe.
In such an event, ARSA may make a play for a territory of its own. However, it will not be easy as the Buddhist-dominated Arakan Army, with a larger geographical influence, has on many previous occasions clashed with ARSA. But on the other hand, ARSA may just be following a strategy of wait and watch, allowing other ethnic armed organisations to fight this battle for them. More importantly, they may have become more geopolitically savvy.
Their silence will substantiate their claims of being persecuted and stateless people, at least for the consumption of the international community. Incidentally, it was only recently that Dr Win Myat Aye, humanitarian minister in Myanmar’s shadow government, publicly apologised for failing to bring justice to the Rohingyas for the military crackdown against them in 2017. A vastly different position from when he was a minister during the crackdown under the Aung San Suu Kyi-led government when he had called the Rohingyas “terrorists”.
This newfound guilt could be because the National Unity Government not only has its office a stone’s throw away from the White House in Washington DC but is also dependent on the international community for support, having recently asked the US government for nearly half a billion dollars in aid.
Nevertheless, the silence of ARSA in the ongoing conflict in Myanmar should put India on alert. Whether the conflict ensues, whether Myanmar splits or even if NUG gains control -- with their limited experience of taking control of such vast areas and lack of military strength -- the future implications for India are only partially uncertain.
ARSA is planning its move silently. While the present conflict across India’s border continues to impact our northeastern states, the possibility of a Rohingya land which encompasses parts of Myanmar and possibly parts of Bangladesh would bring not just the Rohingyas to our borders but also other global jihadist groups fuelled by ISI, an unholy combination that India will have to contend with.
(Rami Niranjan Desai is an anthropologist who specialises in the Northeast region and India’s neighbourhood. Her work focuses on ethnic identity, tribal issues, and insurgency)
No comments:
Post a Comment