Daniel Bush
President Joe Biden has made calls for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a central element of his strong support for Israel's war against Hamas, which is increasingly unpopular with some of his own backers.
But in recent weeks Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed the proposals for a long-term peace with growing defiance, complicating Biden's relationship with key allies in the Middle East as he seeks to stabilize tensions in the region and navigate a complex political issue which also has implications for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Netanyahu's repeated rejections of a two-state solution make it harder for Biden to justify his support for an Israeli military operation against Hamas that has resulted in more than 25,000 deaths and that led to a dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Middle East analysts said.
"It hurts Biden's ability to work with important U.S. allies [in the region] and also his domestic credibility" on the Middle East, said Daniel Byman, a professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
The war's ripple effect in the region has already extended to the U.S.-brokered negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations, a process that had begun under Biden's predecessor and likely 2024 election opponent Donald Trump.
Resolving the question of Palestinian statehood was a sticking point in the talks before Hamas killed roughly 1,200 people in a brutal attack inside Israel on Oct. 7. But the talks stalled after the attack, and now experts said the U.S. will likely face more pressure from Saudi Arabia to get Israel to agree on some sort of pathway to a two-state solution as part of a final agreement.
"It's essential for Biden to get some results in the form of shifts in Israeli actions" toward support of an independent Palestinian state, said Brian Katulis, the vice president of policy at the Middle East Institute, a Washington think tank.
Biden's support for the creation of a Palestinian state once the current war is over is an attempt to present Netanyahu with a stark choice between seeking stronger relations in the region and remaining isolated diplomatically from Saudi Arabia and others, Katulis added.
"Biden has been cornering Bibi through diplomacy," Katulis, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname. But if the effort fails to show progress, he added, America's Arab partners in the region are going to look at the U.S. as "more part of the problem than part of the solution."
President Joe Biden pictured with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the start of the Israeli war cabinet meeting in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023.
The perception that the U.S. has limited leverage over Israel may also weaken Biden's efforts to avoid a larger conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iranian-backed groups operating in Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere in the region.
A U.S.-led coalition of countries has already launched multiple strikes against the Houthis, an Iranian-backed militant group in Yemen, in response to the group's attacks on American naval ships and international merchant vessels in the Red Sea.
American troops have been attacked repeatedly by militant groups in Iraq and Syria since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas last year. On Sunday, three members of the U.S. military were killed and others injured in a drone attack in Jordan near the Syrian border.
"Radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq" are responsible for the attack, Biden said in a statement Sunday.
In the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, Biden reassured Americans that the United States would not get entangled in another conflict in the region at a time when the U.S. is heavily involved, albeit indirectly, in the war between Ukraine and Russia. Biden has said avoiding a broader regional conflict in the Middle East is a top priority, and vowed not to send U.S. troops to Israel.
But Biden's unwavering support for Israel has come increasingly under fire at home from progressive Democrats and Arab and Muslim American groups — voting blocs Biden needs to rally to win a second term in November.
A recent YouGov/The Economist poll found that 51 percent of voters who backed Biden in 2020 believe Israel's response to Hamas has been "too harsh." Among Biden voters, 50 percent also said Israel was committing genocide against Palestinian civilians, according to the poll, which was conducted Jan. 21-23.
Biden is also facing growing pressure from Democrats in Congress to push Israel to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza.
But Netanyahu has said Israel won't stop its military campaign until it destroys Hamas and frees the hostages the group took during the Oct. 7 attack. Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza are still holding roughly 130 people hostage.
Palestinians ride a truck with some of their belongings as they flee Khan Yunis in the Gaza Strip, on January 25, 2024, amid continuing battles between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
In recent weeks Netanyahu has also thrown cold water on support for a two-state solution. He rejected the idea at a press conference earlier this month and then went further after Biden told reporters following a Jan. 19 call with the Israeli leader that a two-state solution was still possible while Netanyahu was in office.
"I will not compromise on full Israeli security control over the entire area west of" the Jordan River, Netanyahu said in a post on social media the day after Biden's comments, "and this is irreconcilable with a Palestinian state."
Netanyahu has opposed a two-state solution throughout his political career, and critics maintain that he has pursued policies, such as expanding Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, that are designed to ensure a future Palestinian state is not viable.
A recent poll showed that support for a two-state solution had tumbled among both Israelis and Palestinians since the war with Hamas began. Support stood at only 34 percent among Israeli Jews and 33 percent among Palestinians.
Some Middle East analysts said the Israeli prime minister's aggressive rhetoric of late reflects an attempt by Netanyahu -- who faces corruption charges in a yearslong trial -- to maintain his far-right coalition government in place and assure the Israeli public that he is making progress in the war with Hamas.
"[Netanyahu] is doing everything he can to appease his right-wing coalition because he wants to stay in power," said Mara Rudman, who served as a senior Middle East diplomat in the Obama administration. Appearing defiant in the face of U.S. pressure to back a two-state solution "is part and parcel of how this guy operates," she added.
The Israeli prime minister's office did not respond to a Newsweek request for comment.
In response to a request for comment from the White House, an official referred Newsweek to remarks by National Security Council spokesman John Kirby after Biden and Netanyahu spoke by phone in late January for the first time in almost one month.
"The president still believes in the promise and the possibility of a two-state solution," Kirby said at the time. "He recognizes that's going to take a lot of hard work."
Right now, however, Biden and Netanyahu appear as far apart as ever on the issue, said Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, the director of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Program at the United States Institute for Peace.
The United States and Israel view the Oct. 7 attack as a pivotal event, but Biden and Netanyahu have reached "diametrically opposed lessons and takeaways" about the best path to achieving a long-term peace, Kurtzer-Ellenbogen said. "The battle lines are drawn on this issue."
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