This blog was first published on the Military Balance+ on 31 January 2024.Europe risks being left behind in the hot field of loitering munitions, a technology it pioneered and where it is now playing catch-up. Demand for these weapons has surged after they demonstrated their utility in fighting in Azerbaijan, the Red Sea and Ukraine, and they have become a major export item for countries such as Iran.
Development pathIn the 1970s, then West Germany and the United States spearheaded the development of an affordable radar-homing one-way attack munition to suppress or destroy enemy air defences. The programme was discontinued, but Dornier, a German participant, continued and achieved a breakthrough by the late 1980s with the Drohne Anti-Radar, an advanced, truck-launched, long-endurance anti-radiation drone. Technologically and conceptually, it was far ahead of its time. With the Cold War ending, neither Germany nor anyone else procured the system. The design appears to have found its way to Israel, though, where Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) produced the very similar looking Harpy.
China seized on the promising technology by acquiring Harpy munitions in the 1990s and 2000s and it later began manufacturing a Harpy-like system. Taiwan followed in the late-2010s, introducing its own Harpy copy.
Battlefield impactIAI evolved the Harpy into the loitering Harop, which it exported to Azerbaijan. Baku used the system extensively in the 2021 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
By the mid-2010s, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace development arm, Shahed Aviation Industries Research Center, sought to replicate the Israeli Harpy. Modifying the design to use satellite navigation instead of a radiation seeker, it created the Shahed 131, a cost-effective, long-range, one-way attack munition. The design was subsequently scaled up into the longer-range Shahed 136.
Iran and its proxies have used both extensively in combat. The Military Balance 2024 illustrates how such systems have become an export success for Iran, including with the sale to Russia that has turned Shahed attacks into a near-daily feature of the war in Ukraine. Moscow is reportedly working on establishing a full domestic massproduction capability for the system.
Russia is also using domestically developed loitering munitions in Ukraine, in particular the Lancet family. Meanwhile, Iran and China are adding a diverse set of domestically developed loitering munitions to their arsenals.
Catching upThe US fell behind in the technology, but now it has several such systems in production, including AeroVironment’s Switchblade family of drones. The US has supplied hundreds of those to Ukraine.
Across Europe, countries are still trying to catch up. Poland awarded WB Electronics a contract in 2017 worth up to PLN50 million (USD13.23m) for up to 100 sets of Warmate (each with ten loitering munitions). It has placed follow-on orders for improved versions, with some exported to Ukraine and Georgia. WB Electronics is also behind the Gladius strike reconnaissance system comprising a larger loitering munition and the FT-5 light intelligence-gathering uninhabited air vehicle. Poland signed a contract for four batteries in 2022 worth PLN2 billion (USD482.21m), followed quickly by a development contract for the Gladius 2 with a 100-kilometre range.
Turkiye acquired Harpy in the early 2000s and, more recently, the Polish Warmate. The country has invested heavily in domestic systems as well, though it is unclear whether any have entered service. Lentatek presented its Harpy-inspired system in 2022 called Kargı. Two months later STM and Roketsan unveiled the Alpagut and HAVELSAN has now demonstrated its Barkan uninhabited ground vehicle fitted with a one-way-attack munition.
The British Army selected MBDA’s Fire Shadow design in 2007, but the project was eventually cancelled. London placed an order with the US in 2021 for the Switchblade system, which has also been selected by Lithuania. The service is trialling the use of this kind of technology in urban environments. France launched two efforts in 2022: the short-range (5 km) Colibri and the longer-range Larinae (50 km+). Although in early stages, progress has been relatively swift, with industrial teams awarded demonstration contracts for the Colibri project in March and for Larinae in June.
Other European countries have opted to buy systems from outside Europe. In 2021, Rheinmetall (through RWM Italia) signed an agreement with Israeli firm UVision to partner on loitering munitions in Europe. This collaboration has borne fruit, with deals to supply Italian special forces and the Hungarian army, and reports have emerged of interest from Slovakia. Similarly, IAI signed an agreement in mid-2023 with MBDA Deutschland to jointly offer loitering munitions to the Bundeswehr. Meanwhile, IAI has secured orders with four NATO countries for such systems including Estonia.
The booming interest in loitering munitions has spurred a flood of computer-generated and real models of such systems, crowding the market. Some manufacturers will profit from Europe’s emerging appetite for loitering munitions. Others, though, may face a fate more like that of Dornier, which exited the market.
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