Isabel van Brugen
Ukrainian forces may be forced to withdraw from their positions in the key eastern town of Avdiivka as Russian forces conduct a "tactical turning movement" in the embattled region, according to a U.S. think tank which published a new war map of the ongoing offensive.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank, said on Thursday that while Kyiv's troops have yet to completely pull out from Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting in the Donetsk region, geolocated footage suggests that Russian troops are making significant gains to the northwest of the town.
This map from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) from February 15, 2024, shows the ongoing offensive around Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Russia in October launched a major offensive on the key frontline town, which been the target of Moscow's forces' aggression since 2014 when Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed the southern Crimean peninsula from Ukraine.
Both Moscow and Ukraine have suffered heavy losses of troops and equipment in the fight for the region, which is seen as a gateway to nearby Russian-occupied Donetsk city. For Russia, seizing the region would present the Kremlin with a battlefield victory ahead of the country's presidential election, which is taking place in March. Newsweek has contacted Russian and Ukrainian authorities for comment by email.
As fighting intensifies in Avdiivka, a U.S. official has warned that Ukraine's ammunition shortages could soon see Russia seize the town.
"Avdiivka is at risk of falling into Russian control," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday in Washington.
It comes as a U.S. foreign aid package that includes $60 billion in support of Ukraine remains held up in Congress.
Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria forces, said the situation in Avdiivka is "difficult, but controlled."
"Fierce fighting is taking place within the city," Tarnavskyi said on Thursday. "Our troops are using all available forces and means to deter the enemy."
"New positions have been prepared and powerful fortifications continue to be prepared for all possible scenarios," he added.
The ISW said in its assessment of the conflict on Thursday that the potential Russian capture of Avdiivka "would not be operationally significant and would likely only offer the Kremlin immediate informational and political victories."
A Ukrainian serviceman of the 47th Mechanized Brigade prepares for combat a Bradley fighting vehicle, not far away from Avdiivka, Donetsk region on February 11, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"The potential capture of Avdiivka would give the Kremlin a battlefield victory, however tactical, to promote to a domestic audience ahead of the Russian presidential election in March 2024," the think tank said.
"The Kremlin has reportedly increasingly desired any battlefield victory ahead of the presidential elections and has reportedly set objectives in Ukraine specifically to generate informational effects," the ISW added, referring to its propaganda value.
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