THOMAS NEWDICK
Ukraine claimed today that Russia lost another A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft — which would be the second such loss of the conflict so far. Among the first rumors of the incident to circulate came from Russian military bloggers, saying that the Mainstay was a victim of friendly fire over the Sea of Azov. Meanwhile, Ukrainian accounts suggested that the aircraft was shot down in a joint operation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian intelligence services.
Subsequently, the Ukrainian Air Force and Ukrainian Defense Forces posted separately on X stating that an A-50 had been destroyed, the Air Force noting that this had occurred at around 7:00 P.M. local time, while the Defense Forces quoted the unit cost of the aircraft, said to be $330 million.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, or GUR, also says it was involved in the operation to bring down the A-50 and has released maps, seen below, showing the approximate location of the claimed shootdown.
While these various claims are yet to be independently verified, videos have appeared on social media showing what is said to be the burning wreckage of the aircraft.
Some of those videos claim that the aircraft came down in the village of Trudovaya Armenia, in the Krasnodar region, in southern Russia, close to the Sea of Azov.
Whether the A-50 fell to Russian or Ukrainian air defenses, videos purporting to show the A-50 releasing infrared countermeasures prior to it coming down certainly point to the likelihood of it having been engaged by some kind of surface-to-air missile. However, unless it was being fired upon by an infrared-guided missile, which is highly unlikely, the flares would have had no effect on the weapon targeting it.
In the previous incident, on January 15, 2024, another A-50 was reportedly shot down (and an Il-22M radio-relay aircraft damaged) after being engaged by Ukrainian air defenses over the Sea of Azov, according to officials in Kyiv.
After that loss, we expected to see these surveillance aircraft pushed farther back from Ukrainian territory, which would, in turn, degrade the quality of intelligence and command and control they provide. However, if this latest A-50 was shot down by Ukrainian fire, that would suggest that Russia may have done little to change its operational tactics.
As of 2021, Russia was estimated to have nine A-50s, including a number of improved A-50Us, in active service. Another one of these aircraft was damaged in a drone attack while on the ground at a base in Belarus last year, and its current status is unknown.
The reported shootdown of the A-50 today comes amid a spate of Ukrainian claims that it has destroyed several other Russian aircraft recently. Just since February 17, the Ukrainian Air Force says that it has brought down five Su-34 Fullback and two Su-35 Flanker-E combat jets. The War Zone cannot independently verify these claims.
This also follows reports that Ukrainian forces are specifically using Patriot surface-to-air missile systems provided by the United States and other foreign partners to deny Russian aircraft access to key operating areas.
Whatever the case, the loss of a second A-50 in the conflict — if confirmed — will be a significant blow to Russia.
No comments:
Post a Comment