David Brennan
Russian forces are edging forward at three key points along Ukraine's frozen front line, according to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, as Kyiv warns that staggering losses alone will not stop Moscow's war machine.
ISW's Thursday update noted confirmed Russian advances in the frontline hotspots near the devastated city of Bakhmut in Donetsk region, the besieged Ukrainian fortress city of Avdiivka, also in Donetsk, and in the the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, which this summer was at the heart of Kyiv's own offensive efforts.
"Positional engagements" are continuing along the 600-mile front, ISW wrote, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces probing each other's positions seeking local advantage.
Newsweek is unable to independently verify the reports and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
Ukraine has transitioned from counteroffensive operations into a more defensive posture with the onset of winter. Russian forces, meanwhile, have launched fresh efforts to capture ground and reverse the meager gains won by Kyiv's troops through a costly summer and fall of fighting.
Moscow's troops have advanced northwest of Bakhmut, with the ISW citing geolocated footage published on January 17 suggesting "a marginal gain in the residential area in northern Bohdanivka," just outside the destroyed city that was captured by Russian units in May 2023 after months of devastating combat.
Ukrainian Ground Forces spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo reported this week that Russian forces are intensifying efforts around Bakhmut, as well as in the direction of Kupyiansk in Kharkiv Oblast.
Elsewhere, Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka, the fortified city that has long been a fulcrum for the Ukrainian military on the Donetsk front.
The settlement sits just outside Donetsk, which since 2014 has been occupied by local separatists and their Russian patrons. The city is considered the unofficial capital of the Donbas region, making it a key political and logistical goal.
A map published by the Institute for the Study of War shows areas of Russian attacks in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts as of January 18, 2024.
"Geolocated footage published on January 17 shows Russian forces assaulting and capturing a position east of Nevelske," ISW wrote, referring to a small settlement to the southwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces have been trying to encircle the town for months.
Fighting continues all around Avdiivka, ISW said, including at the coke plant to its northwest, the industrial zone to its southeast, near Sieverne to its west, and near Pervomaiske and Nevelske to its southwest.
To the south, Russian units are pushing forwards into the territory briefly liberated by Ukrainian troops over the summer along the administrative border between the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
"Geolocated footage published on January 18 shows that Russian forces previously marginally advanced southeast of Rivnopil," ISW wrote.
Ukraine took back the destroyed village in June as its forces drove southwards from the Velyka Novosilka area, hoping to push into the Russian-occupied "land bridge" connecting Crimea to Western Russia. The ultimate target for the push from Velyka Novosilka was believed to be the port city of Berdiansk.
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