Impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on National Cyber Planning: A Survey of Ten Countries

Greg Austin & Natallia Khaniejo

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This survey of ten countries shows how radically they have reacted to the unprecedented cyber operations of the Russia–Ukraine war. The report also flags important lessons about the strategic character of cyber operations in modern war.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has involved the most extensive and continuous use of hostile cyber operations by one state against another in history. What has the world learnt about cyber power as a result? This paper explores how ten countries – Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States – have responded to the war in the cyber domain. The paper delineates five main takeaways:

• The blurring of boundaries between competition, crisis and war in cyberspace requires a continuity of cyber defence.
• National cyber security should be among a state’s top priorities in policy focus and budget allocations.
• Cyber security can only be achieved by proactive measures informed by the principles of ‘active defence’ and ‘defence in depth’.
• National cyber defence depends on effective partnerships between governments and the private sector as well as alliances with like-minded countries.
• Influence operations are a growing and significant challenge in cyberspace, with most of the states surveyed introducing new measures to enhance societal resilience against such operations.

The US concept of defending forward in cyberspace has gained considerable validation from the Russia–Ukraine war. All the countries reviewed in this study have refined or stepped up the restructuring of their cyber military assets, not only for warfighting but also to ensure that in peacetime the military elements reinforce continuous national cyber defence.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has also underlined the role of tech companies as geopolitical actors given their decisive interventions in the war. However, some countries, especially the US, UK and EU members, have raised various political concerns over the quasi-combatant role of these private corporations in relation to the principles of international humanitarian law.

As a result of cyber operations in the Russia–Ukraine war, the profile of national cyber capabilities is poised to become even more prominent than it is today. China’s cyber operations and potential will become an important additional motivation to bolster national cyber defence.

Further significant adjustments in national cyber policy will continue to be made if Russia continues to expand its cyber and information operations against Ukraine and its allies.