Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM (Retd)
The commodified versions of the technology are now being used to create new weapons systems that are highly effective and cheap, they have far-reaching consequences for today’s warfare.
Terrorists and Insurgents, Violent Non State Actors, smaller organisations and countries pick up these technologies very fast. Image: Reuters
The Character of warfare is changing. The rate of change has become very fast. The engines for this rapid change in emerging technologies like Artificial intelligence (AI), Unmanned Aerial Vehicles or Drones, Cyber, Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, 5G technology, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Biology, 3D printing etc. The driver of these emerging technologies has been designed for consumer products. The commodified versions of the technology are now being used to create new weapons systems that are highly effective and cheap, they have far-reaching consequences for today’s warfare.
Innovations like ubiquitous sensing, meshing of civilian and military sensors, decentralized command and control, abundant use of drones of all sizes and types and for all domains, increased automation of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, and battlespace management and information operations and battles of narratives have emerged.
Technology is a great leveller. Terrorists and Insurgents, Violent Non State Actors, smaller organisations and countries pick up these technologies very fast. They are tech-savvy, networked organisations, nimble on their feet to take asymmetric advantages for their way of warfare.
Big powerful Armed Forces and hierarchical organisations with traditional thinking find it difficult to change quickly to cope with the latest threats emanating from these smaller organisations. Ultimately the bigger and stronger armed forces prevail because of their resources, and technological industrial base, but the advantage always lies with the people who use these technologies initially. The traditional armed forces get on the back foot in reaction mode.
Hamas has used targeted cyberattacks, and Israel has employed AI, in its air campaign in Gaza. The integration of advanced technologies into military strategies has revolutionized the way conflicts are waged, presenting both opportunities and risks on a global scale.
The effective use of drones has been seen in all the recent conflicts. Drones are cheap, deadly and ubiquitous. Drones have become vital for surveillance, reconnaissance and targeted strikes. Drones are shaping and reshaping the battlefield. These low-cost, high-tech eyes and weapons redefine wars, bringing both safer missions and a levelled playing field. They are changing warfare, but are not magic wands. The real advantage lies not in possessing them, but in understanding how, when and why to unleash their potential.
On September 14, 2019, the oil facilities considered the largest of its kind in the world run by the Saudi Arabia state oil company Aramco were attacked. The Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed that ten drones carried out the attack saying it was in response to the Saudi-led war in Yemen. Cruise missiles were also used simultaneously. The attack showed that drones can penetrate deep into the airspace of a key U.S. ally in a dense air defence environment. Despite having the third largest defence budget in the world, the kingdom could not defeat a rag-tag militia in the Arab world’s poorest country or protect its oil infrastructure from its enemies.
On September 27, 2020, the war broke out with Azerbaijan launching an offensive with barrages of artillery and the deployment of heavy armour and drones along the Line of Contact separating Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh to retake Nagorno-Karabakh. After 45 days of hard fighting the war came to an end with a resounding victory for Azerbaijan. Drones played a very important part in this conflict for Azerbaijan.
In the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Drones continue to feature on the battlefield for both sides. The Russia-Ukraine war and the recent Hamas attack that penetrated Israel’s famous Iron Dome, are both examples of how drones have transformed and continue to change warfare. Increasingly, new types of unmanned aerial vehicles are having game-changing effects.
Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, Yemen-based, Iran-backed Houthis conducted numerous incidents of maritime aggression involving firing over 100 missiles and drones at commercial vessels, illegally seizing them, and harassing US Navy and coalition ships in Middle Eastern waters. The approximately 27 incidents of Houthi maritime aggression in December alone surpassed the 20 incidents throughout the rest of 2023 combined. This has created huge commotion in global maritime trade.
Throughout human history, the capacity to control the seas and to control commerce was only available to rich countries that could allocate a substantial amount of their national income to build a strong navy. The Houthis have now enacted a de facto naval blockade — without possessing a navy. Though the Houthis do not have a traditional fleet they could still challenge the mighty U.S. Navy’s sea control using unconventional fleets of armed unmanned surface vessels, fast attack craft, naval mines, drones, helicopters and anti-ship cruise missiles. This would force the U.S. Navy to overstretch its resources to protect a long sea line of communication. How does a strong conventional Navy deal with this kind of threat who does not have a navy!
Predictably the stronger and bigger navies have responded on expected lines. The U.S. military has launched Operation Sea Guardian to protect Red Sea shipping. Since Christmas Eve the force has shot down 12 attack drones and five missiles launched by the Houthis. But counterfire from Western navies in response to Houthi attacks doesn’t yield the sort of sailing environment shipping lines need.
Present conflict in the Red Sea raises a number of interesting questions about the concept of operations, force structure, weapon profile etc. Is it time to reassess what a conventional military force can and cannot achieve on this battlefield? This new environment gives a strong “home advantage” to the terrorists and Non-State Actors. Navies have been the favoured power projection tool in far-off regions of the world. But if vessels can be so easily and cheaply threatened by weaponry like drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, their utility may be far less than in the past.
If the threats in the Red Sea were expected, the task force would have comprised mostly of Littoral Combat ships – small, nimble, modular, networked and flexible. What we have now are bigger, stronger and more expensive destroyers and frigates.
The signal that one gets is, that if the most powerful and expensive Navy in the history of the world can’t guarantee freedom of the seas, nobody else will be able to do it either. If a handful of angry Arabs can shut down an important trade route, then basically anybody else can do the same. Some other bunch of rebels somewhere else sees it work and gets the same idea and another route gets blocked. The cost of shipping starts to rise out of control.
These are some of the issues which require deliberate detailed analysis.
In part II will see the importance of Bav-el-Mandev straits and implications on maritime threats.
The author is an Indian Army Veteran
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