Jemal R. Brinson, Juanje Gómez, Daniel Michaels and Stephen Kalin
Drones are transforming warfare, from Red Square to the Red Sea.
Over the past decade, uncrewed aerial vehicles—and recently naval vessels—have put increasingly lethal and effective military equipment in the hands of insurgent groups such as Islamic State, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and underdogs like the Ukrainian military. Kyiv used drones to slow Russia’s invasion in 2022 and later sent longer-range UAVs to hit targets as far away as Moscow.
When Hamas struck Israel on Oct. 7, its attack began with strikes from hobbyist drones on Israeli surveillance posts. The Iran-backed Houthis are using drones to target Red Sea shipping lanes.
The question for the U.S. and its allies now is how to defend against cheap drones without using expensive missiles.
Here’s a look at some of the ways drones are reshaping warfare.
RANGE: Drones expand the battlefield
Like operating from a hilltop, drones extend fighters’ line of sight and field of fire. They improve the accuracy of weapons fired from afar, such as artillery. They can help locate and target logistical networks, stretching enemy supply lines and complicating operations. Long-range drones put civilian areas far from the frontline into play without the risk of sending pilots into danger.
Trench
TEMPO: Drones make warfare relentless and pervasive
Unlike soldiers, drones don’t eat, sleep or get tired, and increasingly they’re expendable. Connected in a network, they can share information instantaneously with controllers and each other. Their unblinking eyes limit sanctuary on the battlefield, forcing troops to be constantly on guard, which is exhausting.
INDEPENDENCE: Drones are learning to recognize targets and operate independently
Delegating some tasks to a drone – like mapping the terrain or identifying enemy positions – lightens the workload on human operators and frees them up to focus on higher-order tasks. Whether this autonomy reduces or increases the risk of errant strikes remains uncertain.
COST: The low price and availability of simple drones help level the playing field between big and small militaries.
Battlefield drones have gone from high-end systems to an expendable item like missiles. Commercial drones are adapted for combat use. Their proliferation is forcing bigger militaries to focus on advanced anti-drone technologies to maintain an edge. It’s also pushing them towards mass production of drone armies.
IMPACT: Drones are replacing expensive missiles for some strikes.
The proliferation of long-range drones with large payloads requires militaries and governments to deploy stronger air defense systems in more locations. Rapid technological developments have triggered an arms race to develop countermeasures and counter-countermeasures.
TARGETING: Drones’ nimbleness could help reduce collateral damage
Tiny drones can get inside buildings or other contained areas, potentially limiting destruction needed to hit a target. That can help militaries more effectively target an enemy’s leadership.
SWARMING: In the near future, massed drones will operate in coordination with each other, guided by artificial intelligence
Remote operators will give the swarm objectives, like hitting a specific target or preventing the enemy from achieving an objective. AI will assign tasks to each drone, which will cooperate as a unit, much the way fighter-plane squadrons do now
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