Matthew Loh
A new survey of leading experts from the US and Taiwan casts doubt on China's ability to invade Taiwan with its current military strength.
The survey, released on Monday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, gathered opinions from 52 US experts in November and December last year.
These included people with extensive experience in the US government, academics, and think-tank experts who had testified in Congress before, the center said.
And only 27% of them said they strongly or somewhat agreed the People's Liberation Army had the might to pull off an amphibious invasion, per the report.
A deciding factor for many of these experts could have been the belief that the US military would directly intervene in the event of such an attack.
"An overwhelming 96% of US experts were completely or moderately confident that if China invades Taiwan in the next five years, the US military would intervene to defend Taiwan," the report said.
CSIS also surveyed 35 experts from Taiwan, of whom only 17% said they agreed China had the power to successfully execute an amphibious invasion.
The survey came after multiple reports that China had been purging the PLA of corrupt officials, with cases of graft so severe that Beijing's considerations toward any major military action in the next few years may be affected.
Experts said a quarantine or blockade was more likely
When asked whether they thought China could effectively pressure Taiwan through a quarantine or blockade, the majority on both sides shifted in favor of Beijing.
Ninety-one percent of the US experts said they strongly or somewhat agreed China could create a quarantine of Taiwan, restricting the flow of goods in and out of the island through non-military means. Conversely, only 63% of Taiwanese experts said they agreed China was capable of this.
An example of this would be squeezing traffic to Taiwanese ports through a customs-inspections regime, the center said.
China could also impose a military blockade on Taiwan, which 81% of US experts said they agreed Beijing could do, while 60% of the experts from Taiwan concurred.
Both a quarantine and a blockade could escalate into an invasion, with China encircling Taiwan before it launches an assault, the report said.
Most US experts said Washington would intervene if China took either course of restrictive action, with 63% saying they were completely or moderately confident the US would step in during a quarantine and 79% saying they were confident Washington would intervene in the event of a basic blockade.
That confidence wasn't shared by experts in Taiwan. Only 40% of them said they were confident the US would intervene in a quarantine, and 60% said they were confident it would intervene during a basic blockade.
A pessimistic outlook for 2024
The majority of experts were pessimistic about the year ahead for cross-strait relations, with 58% of experts in Taiwan saying a crisis between both governments — such as large-scale military exercises and an escalation of threats from China — was likely or very likely in 2024.
US attitudes were even more negative. Sixty-eight percent of American experts said a crisis was likely to occur.
Taiwan's electing of William Lai Ching-te, its outgoing vice president, as the island's new leader earlier this month has stoked fears that China will double down on its aggression toward Taipei.
Lai is central to the Democratic Progressive Party, which largely campaigns on resisting Beijing. Taiwan's outgoing president, Tsai Ing-wen, has been increasingly hawkish toward China as Beijing, led by Xi Jinping, simultaneously heaped threats of invasion on the island.
China is believed to have much preferred Lai's rival candidate from the Kuomintang party, which has encouraged warmer ties with Beijing. Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's former president under the Kuomintang party, met with Xi Jinping in 2015.
Lai's ascension as Taiwan's top leader is widely seen as a likely source of further conflict, though he has pledged to uphold the status quo. In a sign of the growing tensions ahead, Beijing has been issuing individual rebukes to countries around the world for congratulating Lai on his election victory.
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