Tom Nagorski
As The Messenger looks to 2024 and what to watch for beyond America’s shores, here are 10 key questions for the year ahead. The answers may determine what sort of year the world has in store.
Will the Ukraine stalemate be broken?
President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office of the White House.
Ukraine had a rough 2023. A much-anticipated counteroffensive fizzled, U.S. and allied support frayed and the usually optimistic-sounding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy now says the country needs hundreds of thousands more troops, billions more dollars in foreign assistance, and that the war in Gaza has sapped support for the Ukrainian cause. And the year's last days, Russia unleashed one of its biggest aerial assaults of the war, piercing Ukrainian air defenses and killing at least 39 people.
Ukraine may be hard-pressed to change the game on the battlefield anytime soon. The key things to watch for will be any breakthroughs in Washington and Brussels over a resumption of aid, Ukraine’s ability to ramp up domestic production of desperately needed ammunition and its success at stealth attacks in Crimea or other Russian-held territories, to keep the Russians off-balance.
But as the war nears its two-year mark (the anniversary is February 24), analysts believe “stalemate” might be the operative word. With that in mind, the U.S. has advised Ukraine to pursue a “hold and build” strategy in 2024–as in, hold the territory it has, while building capabilities to fight another day.
When will Israel say “Mission Accomplished”?
Israel has said repeatedly that its war will continue until Hamas is destroyed. But when will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his commanders decide that’s happened? The Israel Defense Forces says it has killed some 7,000 Hamas militants–if true, a little over one-fourth of Hamas’ armed forces, according to Israel’s own estimates. Large weapons caches have been confiscated and segments of the Hamas tunnel network destroyed, but top Hamas leaders remain at large.
While Israel insists there is no time limit on its war, analysts in Israel and beyond believe the government may be looking to end at least the all-out campaign soon, particularly given global criticism of the war and increasing pressure from the U.S. as well.
The thinking is that Israel might declare this phase over when a significant number of top Hamas leaders have been killed or captured, and the group’s ability to attack significantly degraded. That “mission accomplished” moment could come early in the new year.
Who will rule Gaza?
U.S. officials have said privately that Israeli leaders haven’t thought through the day after–what will follow in Gaza when the guns go silent, and who will govern the 2 million or so people who remain there.
There are many potential answers to those questions; each one is controversial.
The U.S. has pushed a proposal that would see a reinvigorated Palestinian Authority take charge, with financial support from wealthy Persian Gulf Arab states and an international force to keep the peace. That solution has run into a buzzsaw of criticism in Israel: Netanyahu has said repeatedly that the PA must never rule Gaza; in December he called the Authority’s leaders supporters of terrorism. The Gulf nations, meanwhile, have indicated they won’t back a plan unless the Israelis are gone and Palestinians are in charge.
Other options are problematic as well. No one–including Israeli leaders–seems to want an Israeli occupation. And an Arab-led security force isn’t popular among the countries that would be involved; they aren't eager to clean up a mess made by the Israelis.
One wild card involves Israeli politics. Many observers believe Netanyahu’s days in office are numbered, given the failure to anticipate the Oct. 7 attacks and failure thus far to bring all the hostages home. A new Israeli government might be more willing to consider other answers to the Who-rules-Gaza question.
Can China get its economic mojo back?
Workers sort packages for delivery ahead of the Singles' Day shopping festival at a logistics center in Zouping, China.
One year ago, expectations were high in China: Having put COVID lockdowns in the rearview mirror, consumers would open their wallets, foreign investment would resume, and the world’s manufacturing juggernaut would kick back into high gear. But 2023 was a disappointment on all those fronts, and China still faces fundamental problems: a huge and dangerous real estate bubble, a shrinking population, and record levels of youth unemployment and income inequality.
All this matters beyond China's borders. A wobbly recovery will have ripple effects for the global economy. And some China-watchers fear that faced with troubles on the home front, and even the possibility of civil unrest, China’s leader Xi Jinping may be more inclined to push for gains elsewhere–Taiwan, the South China Sea, or other regional flashpoints.
Policymakers have tried shifting government investment away from the troubled real estate sector, boosting welfare for hundreds of millions of rural migrant workers and offering incentives for families to have children, to name just a few potential solutions. But while the IMF and others have forecast China’s growth rate to meet the official 5% target in 2024, they believe it will only drop in the years that follow.
“The 2024 challenge for the Chinese economy will not be GDP growth,” Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told CNN. “The challenge will be that the only direction from there is down.”
Who will rule Taiwan?
The world’s first major election in 2024 will have major consequences.
Taiwan’s presidential contest on January 13 will unfold against the backdrop of growing U.S.-China tensions. Various studies and forecasts suggest that China wants to be “ready to invade” Taiwan within the next 2-4 years, meaning that the next President of Taiwan, who would be in office until 2028, could end up being a wartime leader.
The January results will have an immediate impact, because the main candidates hold sharply different views on dealing with mainland China. William Lai and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) want stronger relations with the U.S. and a more powerful military deterrent against China. His chief rival, Hou You-yi of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), is for dialogue with Beijing and an eventual reunification with China.
A KMT victory could lower tensions between China and Taiwan in the short term; over the long term, it might embolden China to move towards unification with the island. That in turn would drive up hostilities with Taiwan’s main international sponsor, the U.S. A DPP victory, on the other hand, could see an immediate ramping up of tensions—in the Taiwan Strait and beyond.
What (if anything) will change in Iran?
Dozens of people stage a demonstration on Wednesday to protest Mahsa Amini's death in Tehran.
Iran was prominent in the news in 2023, and mostly for bad reasons. A crackdown continued against women who refused to wear headscarves; the U.N. said Iran had upped its pursuit of nuclear weapons; and in the aftermath of the October 7 massacre in Israel, the world’s attention focused on Iran’s backing not only of Hamas but also Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen.
One immediate question in the new year: Will Iran act more aggressively in response to Israel’s war in Gaza? To date, its proxy groups have refrained from using all their might against Israel. Last week Iran vowed Israel "will pay the price" for the killing of a top Iranian commander in Syria. Any escalation by Iran or its proxies would be a game changer–a widening of the war that the U.S. and others have tried desperately to avoid.
Another question involves the fate of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. He is 84 years old and frail, and while he has unofficially anointed his son Mojtaba as successor, analysts believe a power struggle could follow the supreme leader’s departure from the scene. And that could be a game-changer, too.
Can anything stop Narendra Modi?
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks at a news conference on May 24, 2023, in Sydney, Australia.
When Narendra Modi first became India’s Prime Minister in 2014, it was the first time his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party had won a clear majority in the country’s parliament. A decade later, that majority looks stronger than ever.
Regional elections in key states in December showed clear victories for the BJP, auguring well for Modi himself when it comes to national elections scheduled for this spring.
All signs point to an acceleration of Modi’s Hindu nationalist project, which critics say has eroded the country’s democratic foundations. Authorities have used anti-terror laws to crack down on dissenters — journalists and activists and even elderly poets and priests who have disagreed with the government’s policies. Foreign media, usually immune from such actions, haven’t been spared; tax authorities raided the BBC’s India offices following the airing of a documentary that was critical of Modi.
By one assessment, the world’s largest democracy is now also among the world’s top ten “autocrizing countries,” a term coined by Sweden’s V Dem Institute, which tracks global democratic trends.
Can (will) the world stop another genocide?
Destruction in a livestock market in al-Fasher, capital of Sudan's North Darfur state, in September 2023.
Twenty years ago, conflict in the Darfur region of western Sudan led to a genocide, widely acknowledged as the first of this century; now there are concerns that the region may face a tragic repeat—another genocide unfolding while the world’s attention is dominated by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
The fears stem from a new round of violence triggered by a fallout between rival Sudanese generals–the country’s army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan, head of the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group.
The two men ended their alliance in 2023 and tensions spilled quickly into war between the army and RSF paramilitaries.
Already, the conflict has displaced more than 4.8 million people–a tenth of the population–and another 1.2 million have fled to neighboring countries.
Now, as the war plays out, the RSF has moved to consolidate its position in Darfur, with a series of conquests that have seen ethnic violence on a large scale. The RSF and its allies — smaller militias in the region — are Arab, and they have been accused of targeting the non-Arab population in Darfur, the same people who suffered years of genocidal violence at the start of the century.
As the U.N. 's top official for refugees, Filippo Grandi, warned recently: “Twenty years ago, the world was shocked by the terrible atrocities and human rights violations in Darfur. We fear a similar dynamic might be developing.”
Can an “anarcho-capitalist” turn a nation around?
The fate of Argentina‘s economy might not seem a top-10 item for 2024–but the country’s just-launched economic experiment will be watched by policymakers all over the world.
After all, when’s the last time a self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” took charge of a major industrialized country? (The answer? Never.) And the last time a leader took power of a nation with inflation running north of 100%? (Honest answer? We’re not sure).
The new president is Javier Milei, who vowed as a candidate to dump the national currency in favor of the dollar, and to eviscerate government departments and services.
In December, Milei’s government announced a 50% devaluation of the peso–a drastic measure but not a total dumping of the currency. The new budget is austere but doesn’t feature all the across-the-board cuts that Milei promised. Some analysts say Milei’s policies may prove to be a case of economic shock therapy that works, provided people accept the austerity. As bad as things have been in Argentina, these policies are already causing even more short-term pain and may lead to civil unrest.
Will global wars pause for sport?
It’s always a hope when the Olympic Games roll around: that warring nations might consider a pause for those two weeks of friendly global competition.
The Olympic Truce is a tradition that dates to 776 BC, when a pause in fighting was announced for the Olympics in ancient Greece, to ensure that athletes and spectators could travel safely to and from the Games.
The International Olympic Committee revived the tradition in 1992; in 2022, the IOC declared a modern Olympic Truce would begin one week before the opening ceremonies of the Olympics and last until a week after the closing ceremony of the Paralympic Games.
The Paris games open July 16, and it’s sadly possible that the wars in Ukraine and Gaza will still be ongoing when the Olympic torch is lit.
Might the parties hold their fire?
The IOC says its truce has been violated only three times in modern history–each time by Russia, most recently when its invasion of Ukraine landed on the eve of the 2022 Winter Paralympic games.
Obviously, wartime leaders and military commanders will weigh many factors before laying down their guns–but the Olympic Truce is a nice concept. Here’s to hoping it happens in 2024.
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