STEPHEN BLANK
Although much expert commentary on Russo-Chinese relations denies an alliance exists, their deepening military collaboration belies that conclusion. The countries’ joint behavior increasingly suggests that a China-dominated multi-dimensional partnership is here and encompasses even more areas of their economic, political and military policy.
They are considering building an underwater tunnel from Russia to Crimea to help Russia retain control of the region but make it more beholden to China. This alone suggests China’s real attitude to the war against Ukraine.
The military dimension of this deepening alliance is multi-domain, trans-regional, global in scope, growing and, according to Putin, becoming more important. This military cooperation represents the strongest domain of collaboration. It includes efforts in the Arctic, outer space and possibly in Europe. For example, a Sino-Russian collaboration occurred regarding the Baltconector gas pipeline, making this collaboration a threat to European infrastructure if not security.
It also is generating de facto alignment with China across Asia, the Arctic and with rogue states such as Iran and North Korea. It could also become a tripartite alliance with North Korea, which is Kim Jong Un’s apparent objective. Moreover, Russia committed itself to following China’s lead in Africa.
The global risks to regional and international security are obvious. The Economist reported that Xi has the leverage to “seek high-end Russian military technology, such as surface-to-air missiles, and nuclear reactors designed to power submarines” and the influence to sway Putin to “withhold or delay supplies of similar items to Russian customers that have territorial disputes with China, such as India and Vietnam.” Additionally, it notes that Russia can “help upgrade China’s nuclear arsenal, or work on a joint missile-warning system.”
Similarly, before Putin invaded Ukraine, a senior-level U.S. official told Politico that the relationship’s evolution over the past decade “is something much deeper and, frankly more concerning,” and it “operates as almost a quasi-alliance.”
“Advanced fighter airplanes, hypersonic technologies, very effective radars … battle integration systems that link different services more effectively, nuclear propulsion with respect to submarines, night vision — I mean, I could go on and on,” the official continued.
Other analysts cited cooperation in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and robotics. Heliborne assault, anti-submarine warfare, early warning and cyber warfare cooperation are also factors. There are coordinated information warfare campaigns in developing countries and enhanced threats to Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently said bilateral relations are exemplary and noted that it is becoming more attractive to others, causing its circle of “friends and like-minded people” to expand while bilateral military cooperation continues growing. Putin echoed this, stating that cooperation here is becoming more important.
Meanwhile, Putin advocated closer cooperation in space, ”including high-orbit assets, and new prospective types of weapons” for the “strategic stability” (probably nuclear weapons) “of both Russia and the People’s Republic of China.”
Clearly, this alliance threatens global security and deterrence and requires policies suited to the assaults Russia and China regularly conduct. However, it remains unclear if governments, let alone experts, fully grasp the dimensions of this challenge.
Recent experience shows that we are too often surprised even though we’ve been given an early warning. When the next shock comes it will probably be too late to say that we were warned for we will then have been judged and found wanting.
Stephen Blank, Ph.D. is a Foreign Policy Research Institute senior fellow. He is a former professor of Russian national security studies and national security affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College and a former MacArthur fellow at the U.S. Army War College. Blank is an independent consultant focused on the geopolitics and geostrategy of the former Soviet Union, Russia and Eurasia.
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