Tom O'Connor
As Israel wages what its government says will be a protracted conflict to defeat Hamas and bring home hostages held in the Gaza Strip, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) official tells Newsweek exclusively that the scope and length of the campaign is being influenced by growing internal and external pressure.
The comments give unique insight into the likely remaining time frame for a conflict that has dominated global headlines since Israel launched an all-out assault on Hamas that has killed thousands of Palestinians and prompted a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip after the group launched an unprecedentedly bloody raid of killing and kidnap into Israel on October 7.
The war has drawn battle lines around the globe, from the United Nations to social media to college campuses and has prompted fears of a wider regional conflict. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden is under growing political pressure over his strong support for Israel as backers of a ceasefire call for an end to the Palestinian death toll in Gaza amid an endless stream of harrowing images of dead children in the rubble.
The IDF official, who spoke to Newsweek on the condition of anonymity, says the timetable for achieving the two operational goals of defeating Hamas and bringing home the hostages could be looked at through "different clocks" that are influencing the course of the ongoing campaign.
"We understand that there are a lot of different clocks that have impact on this and how fast we can go, and in kinetic ways [as well]," the IDF official says. "Can we strike extensively, which reduces some of the other clocks because it makes them go faster because of the international pressure that can come with that?
"It's also understanding that we need to act quickly for the hostages, but we know to say affirmatively that it is not a matter of days, probably not of weeks, and more into the months and more than that."
Israeli army soldiers take a position on a hill overlooking northern Gaza in southern Israel on December 11, 2023. After beginning a ground offensive into northern Gaza in late October, the IDF has expanded operations in the south, seeking to land a decisive blow against Hamas' command and control capabilities.
Escalating Outcry
The assault by Hamas on October 7 took Israel by surprise and sent shockwaves around the globe. Israeli officials estimate that 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed in Israel and more than 240 people taken hostage in what marked the deadliest-ever attack by Palestinian factions.
But more than two months after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war on Gaza in response, international outcries have escalated in response to a mounting death toll among Palestinians, which officials in the Hamas-led territory estimate to be near or potentially beyond 20,000. Palestinian and Israeli officials believe the number of people killed in Gaza exceeds 15,000. Both sides agree that most of the dead are civilians.
Even U.S. officials, who have staunchly echoed Israeli assertions about the country's right to defend itself against a group that seeks its destruction, have increasingly called on their ally to do more to avoid civilian casualties in recent weeks.
But the IDF official argues that the situation Israel faces is in many ways unique.
"When we look at the pressure we have, it is important to look at it differently than any other war that was fought and understand why it's bananas and apples," the IDF official says. "Other countries did not have 247 prisoners, were not under 11,000 rockets that are fired, did not fight against the worst embedded terrorist army in the world.
"The public is now starting to hear what that means, being a hostage of Hamas, if we even needed more proof of their horrific barbarian behavior, but we know that's something that we need to do rapidly."
Already, the IDF has shifted the approach to its fight in the southern stretch of Gaza, to which Israeli officials had previously called on more than 1 million Palestinians to evacuate in the leadup to the initial ground offensive launched on the north in late October. With the White House threatening to withhold support for the southern campaign, the IDF has instituted a comprehensive system of issuing real-time online alerts, making calls, sending text messages and dropping leaflets to warn civilians of imminent operations on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood basis.
And yet time is of the essence, the IDF official notes, as patience wears thin among the international community.
"We also have, of course, the international clock, and we have a humanitarian clock, many clocks that sometimes tick at different paces but are putting more pressure," the IDF official says. "And in order to reach our goals, we know that also acting decisively is part of that," he said—referring to the demolition of 500 shafts leading to an extensive Hamas tunnel network under the territory.
"If you do it quickly, that's when we lost soldiers, and that's part of that complicated challenge," he said. Since Israeli forces entered Gaza, the military death toll has reached nearly 100.
Hamas Defiant
Hamas, for its part, has seized upon these international concerns, issuing appeals for intervention against Israel's campaign, while at the same exuding confidence in the ability of its Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades military wing to expel the IDF by force.
"It is clear that Israel is facing severe resistance in Gaza and is suffering significant losses in troops, equipment and machinery," Hamas spokesperson Ghazi Hamad tells Newsweek. "Al-Qassam fighters succeeded in damaging many tanks and killing a large number of soldiers. They also prevented the occupation forces from expanding into other areas."
"Of course, the occupation forces have not accomplished any real achievements on the ground, so they take revenge on civilians and commit massacres against citizens, women and children."
Another Hamas spokesperson tells Newsweek that Israel "will fail to achieve its goals."
"The Israeli occupation works to portray a victory in the face of the killing of children and women and the destruction of homes over people's heads," the Hamas spokesperson said. "This is the image of victory that the occupation wants through its continued aggression against the Gaza Strip. More than 20,000 citizens were killed. Is this an image of victory? Is this heroism?"
"The resistance is still strong, thanks to God. The resistance continues to attack the Zionist army in all areas of the Gaza Strip. The resistance is strong and will remain strong, with God's will."
Fighters of Hamas' military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, load M90 rockets into a multiple launch rocket system in this undated footage published by the group on December 9, 2023. The newly debuted M-90 appear to be a longer-range update to the M-75 rocket named for senior Hamas official Ibrahim al-Makadmeh, who was killed by Israel in 2003.
What Victory Looks Like
The IDF remains nonetheless determined to ensure that the group that took over Gaza in 2007, two years after Israeli troops disengaged from the Palestinian territory, can never again repeat the events of October 7.
But ticking clocks also influence Israel's calculations in achieving the open-ended goal of neutralizing Hamas as a functioning military and political entity. Exactly what constitutes the group's defeat "is a very challenging thing to say," according to the IDF official, who says Israel was "learning from other friends who have tried to dismantle [terrorist organizations], especially the U.S."
"It's an ongoing conversation," the IDF official says. "How do we learn from that and refine the action, of course, in order to meet that goal? And in the classic way, we're looking at it in different dimensions, the DIME dimensions."
"DIME" refers to the decades-old doctrine that breaks down the elements of national power into the diplomatic, intelligence, military and economic. The concept becomes more opaque, however, when looking at non-state actors such as Hamas, which has demonstrated a resilient capability to operate in a decentralized manner, often down to the battalion level.
As the IDF looks to degrade the group, however, the official acknowledges that targeting each and every fighter is not a tenable goal.
"We are not looking to kill all those Hamas terrorists," the IDF official said. "We would like to see that maybe happen, but we don't think realistically that's going to happen. But you don't need to kill them in order to dismantle their capability, and that's why we're going after those centers of gravity."
How and when this objective is considered accomplished is a matter of policy yet to be determined.
The IDF official says it is up to the highest decision-making levels to make the final call on when the goal of defeating Hamas has been achieved. The IDF and Israel's intelligence apparatus, including Mossad and Shin Bet, would present to the National Security Council, which would then present to the government and its various agencies to determine when Israel's objectives had been met.
"Then we can say when we've reached this goal, and it doesn't need to be that all of the top 10 terrorists of Hamas need to be killed for that to happen," the IDF official says. "And it's not if it's 20 percent or 80 percent, because it's an accumulative thing to look at."
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