GRANT NEWSHAM
The United States Department of Defense recently published its annual report “Military and Security Developments Involving China.”
This “China Power” report provides a detailed description of the People’s Republic of China‘s military as well as its capabilities and likely objectives. The section on China’s rapid nuclear weapons expansion created a particular stir – especially as it caught many observers by surprise.
A friend asked what this writer made of it all.
But is there really a Chinese military buildup?
American analysts now mostly agree there is a rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal. It reflects the broader, rapid growth of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) capabilities over the last 20 years.
That growth is fairly considered the biggest, fastest military buildup seen in any country since World War II – possibly the fastest in human history.
For many years the expert consensus on China’s nuclear warhead inventory was it numbered around 300 or even fewer. Then, in 2021, that estimate changed – all of a sudden – to over 400. And now it’s estimated to be 500 warheads, with that number expected to double by 2030.
As importantly, the PRC is developing more and increasingly effective and accurate delivery systems for its nuclear weapons.
It’s worth noting that “expert consensus” has usually underestimated the rate at which Chinese military capabilities of various sorts develop. In fact, the experts collectively often miss by a decade or two.
Take PLA Navy aircraft carriers. The thinking was that the Chinese would need decades to even begin to master carrier operations. Indeed, such was the lack of concern – if not condescension – on the US side that the then-PACOM commander, Admiral Timothy Keating, noted in 2009 that he saw nothing wrong with the PLA Navy having aircraft carriers. And that he would do what he could to help, if asked.
Well, now it has three carriers and is rapidly figuring out how to use them.
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