Mick Ryan
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) last Friday completed an important component of its operation in Gaza.
An armoured thrust across the middle of Gaza reached the sea. This has the effect of isolating northern Gaza from the rest of the territory. But it also heralds a new phase in the ongoing Israeli military action, Operation Swords of Iron.
The IDF now occupies a large section of middle Gaza and appears set to stay for some time. Open-source intelligence indicates that Israel has rapidly constructed a string of strong points across the trunk of Gaza. These strong points, constructed by the armoured bulldozers, will form a cordon that has several purposes in the next phase of Israel's Gaza operation.
The IDF now occupies a large section of middle Gaza, and appears set to stay for some time.
One reason for isolating northern Gaza is to ensure Hamas is cut off from external sources of support. The cordon will prevent support from southern Gaza moving north to Hamas terrorists. But it will also allow civilians to escape the combat occurring to the north, while preventing Hamas from fleeing south.
While Israeli forces are manning this southern cordon, a large ground force has been advancing on two major axes – from the north and the north east – into Gaza City.
The aim of this is to continue squeezing Hamas, forcing them into a smaller and smaller area where they can be detected and destroyed. The IDF will also be seeking to find Hamas infrastructure in northern Gaza, including confirming the locations of the extensive underground network used to move fighters and store weapons. At the same time the IDF will desperately be seeking hostages that might be held in northern Gaza.
These operations will involve armoured ground forces, crewed and uncrewed aircraft as well as electronic reconnaissance and human intelligence operations.
The IDF has sent ground forces into Gaza.
The deaths of civilians and hostages may be hard to avoid
The mission to destroy Hamas and the mission to retrieve hostages however will be difficult to reconcile. Given the amount of destruction involved in engaging and killing Hamas fighters, it is difficult to avoid civilian casualties or the potential deaths of hostages.
The Israeli operations in Gaza are likely to take some time — possibly weeks or months. The intensity of fighting will increase, and the casualty count for IDF soldiers, Hamas militants and civilians is likely to rise.
During this time Israel will need to balance military missions, avoiding civilian casualties, recovering hostages and keeping an eye on the inevitable strategic clock that is ticking.
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