IRAN UPDATE, NOVEMBER 7, 2023

Peter Mills, Brian Carter, Kathryn Tyson, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl

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The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

CTP and ISW has refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces entered the northern outskirts of al Shati refugee camp in the northwestern Gaza Strip, according to local and Axis of Resistance-affiliated reporting as well as geolocated footage.
2. Hamas and other Palestinian militants are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.
3. CTP-ISW recorded seven indirect fire attacks into Israel, five of which targeted Israeli military facilities.
4. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade conducted eight attacks on Israeli forces in the West Bank after threatening revenge for an Israeli raid that killed fighters from the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade and Hamas.
5. Iranian-backed militants continued cross-border attacks into northern Israel at their normal rate.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for four attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.
7. UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported that senior Axis of Resistance officials traveled to Iran in the summer of 2023 to establish a regional joint operations room.
8. Iranian officials are continuing their attempts to rally the Arab and Muslim world against Israel.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Israeli forces entered the northern outskirts of al Shati refugee camp in the northwestern Gaza Strip on November 7, according to local and Axis of Resistance-affiliated reporting as well as geolocated footage. A Palestinian journalist cited local sources that said that the IDF reached an apartment building just north of al Shati camp.[1] An Axis of Resistance-affiliated source similarly claimed that the IDF engaged unspecified Palestinian militants at positions east and west of the building.[2] Geolocated Hamas footage from November 4 furthermore showed Hamas militants firing tandem charge anti-tank rockets at Israeli armor north of al Shati camp.[3]

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Beit Hanoun on November 7. The IDF said that it forces destroyed several Hamas tunnels inside a residential home in Beit Hanoun.[4]

Hamas and other Palestinian militants are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. Axis of Resistance-affiliated media reported fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the al Amoudi area near Atatra.[5] An independent social media account geolocated IDF footage of the fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants near Atatra.[6] Unidentified Palestinian militants separately attacked an IDF unit near the Sharm amusement park in Netzarim on November 7, according to a Palestinian journalist.[7] Fighting behind the Israeli forward line of advance is consistent with the doctrinal definition of "clear,” which is a tactical task that "requires the commander to remove all enemy forces and eliminate organized resistance within an assigned area.” Clearing operations frequently take weeks and sometimes months to complete. Enemy counterattacks will often persist throughout a clearing operation until the clearing force has successfully eliminated organized resistance in its sector. Attacks may still occur infrequently even after the end of a clearing operation due to the re-infiltration of enemy forces.

The IDF reported that its forces located a Hamas unit planning to attack advancing Israeli forces from a building adjacent to the al Quds Hospital outside Gaza City and called in air support for a strike.[8] The strike caused several secondary explosions. The IDF suggested that there had been a weapons stockpile at the site.[9] A Palestinian journalist reported that the IDF is making advances to the Tal al Hawa neighborhood south of Gaza City on November 6, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[10]

CTP-ISW recorded seven indirect fire attacks into Israel, five of which targeted Israeli military facilities.[11] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed two rocket attacks targeting Ashdod and Tel Aviv.[12] Axis of Resistance-affiliated media claimed that the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade— the self-claimed military wing of Fatah—conducted three rocket attacks targeting Israeli military facilities.[13] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade has not claimed responsibility for any three of these reported attacks at the time of publication. Axis of Resistance-affiliated media also claimed that unidentified Palestinian militants destroyed several wings of the Barzilai Hospital in Ashkelon in a rocket attack.[14] Half as many indirect fire attacks into Israel occurred at the time of publication on November 7 compared to November 6.

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian militants continued clashing with Israeli forces at the usual rate in the West Bank on November 7. The al Qassem Brigades, al Quds Brigades, and al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade engaged Israeli forces in 12 small arms clashes and conducted seven IED attacks targeting Israeli forces.[15] These attacks occurred primarily around Jenin and Tulkarm in the northern West Bank. Unspecified militants also detonated an IED targeting Israeli forces in Jenin.[16] Unspecified militants separately clashed with Israeli forces with small arms fire in Ramallah.[17]

The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade conducted eight attacks on Israeli forces in the West Bank on November 7 after threatening revenge for an Israeli raid that killed fighters from the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade and Hamas. Israeli forces killed at least three al Aqsa Martys’ Brigade and Hamas fighters during a raid in Tulkarm on November 6.[18] The Tulkarm Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade said on November 6 that it would avenge these fighters within 24 hours and appears to be acting on its threat.[19] Most of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade attacks on November 7 occurred in Tulkarm in the northern West Bank, which included an hours-long engagement between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the Tulkarm camp.[20] The Tulkarm Battalion of the al Quds Brigades also engaged Israeli forces in the Tulkarm camp at the same time, indicating possible coordination between the groups. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade and al Quds Brigades claimed combined attacks in Tulkarm in October 2023.[21]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militants continued cross-border attacks into northern Israel at their normal rate on November 7. Unspecified militants conducted five attacks on Israeli military and civilian targets in northern Israel with anti-tank missiles, rockets, and small arms fire.[22] Unspecified militants also fired one salvo of 20 rockets from southern Lebanon toward the Golan Heights on November 7.[23] The IDF responded by firing artillery at the source of the attacks in Lebanon.[24]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for four attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria on November 7. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed 42 attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East since October 18. A Syrian regime-affiliated social media account claimed the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is using variants of the Samad-2 drone to attack US forces in Iraq and Syria.[25] The Houthi movement is the primary operator of the Samad-2 drone, although Lebanese Hezbollah and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq also maintain variants of this platform.[26]

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it conducted two separate one-way drone attacks targeting Erbil International Airport and al Harir airbase in northern Iraq on November 7.[27] The group has claimed five attacks on Erbil International Airport and four attacks on al Harir airbase since October 18. The Islamic Resistance al Dhaferin Group, which is affiliated with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, previously threatened to attack al Harir airbase on November 5.[28]
• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it conducted one-way drone and rocket attacks on US bases at the Green Village and Conoco bases in northeastern Syria.[29] The group’s claimed attack on US forces at Green Village is its first claimed attack there since October 18, although it previously targeted a nearby US base at al Omar oil field on October 24. The group has also claimed three attacks on the Conoco base since October 18.

The Houthi military spokesperson claimed that the group launched an unspecified number of attack drones at “sensitive sites” in Israel on November 6.[30] The Houthis released a video on November 7 showing the launch of 10 drones.[31] The IDF did not comment on the Houthi’s claimed drone attack.[32] Israeli media reported that no alarms were activated in southern Israel, suggesting the drones did not reach Israel.[33] CTP-ISW cannot independently confirm this drone attack. It would mark the fifth attempted Houthi attack against Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began if it did, in fact, occur.

Iranian officials are continuing their attempts to rally the Arab and Muslim world against Israel. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf discussed holding an extraordinary meeting of the “Permanent Palestine Committee,” which is composed of the parliamentary heads of some Muslim countries, to support the “oppressed people of Palestine” during a phone call with Algerian Assembly President Ebrahim Boughali on November 7.[34] Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian similarly discussed Egyptian-Iranian cooperation ahead of the upcoming Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Riyadh on November 12 with Egyptian Foreign Affairs Minister Sameh Shoukry.[35] Iranian state media reported that President Ebrahim Raisi will attend the OIC meeting.[36] Iran has repeatedly used the OIC as a platform for uniting Arab and Muslim countries against Israel, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[37]

UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported on November 7 that senior Axis of Resistance officials traveled to Iran in the summer of 2023 to establish a regional joint operations room.[38] Representatives and leaders from Hamas, PIJ, the Houthi movement, and numerous Iraqi militias met with senior Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani. The Axis of Resistance originally established the operations room to “counter challenges” from the United States and Israel and is currently using the operations room to coordinate Axis of Resistance activities vis-a-vis the Israel-Hamas war. Ghaani has coordinated Axis of Resistance activities from the joint operations room in Beirut, according to an earlier Amwaj Media report.[39] Amwaj Media noted at the time that LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is essentially leading the joint operations room. The establishment of this regional joint operations room is consistent with CTP-ISW’s previous observation that Iran pursued greater coordination with Palestinian groups in the year leading up to Hamas’ October 7 attack into Israel.[40] Senior PIJ and Hamas officials met with Iranian leaders, including Khamenei, in Tehran in June 2023, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[41]