Daoud Kuttab
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Depending on which way you look at it, the Oct. 7 attack carried out by the military wing of Hamas, dubbed the “Al Aqsa Tsunami,” has either permanently destroyed the Palestinian national movement or given it new life.
Fatah, the main pillar of the Palestinian national movement within the Palestine Liberation Organization, has been politically crushed and seen sagging popularity in recent years, which has given a boost to Hamas, founded in 1987.
The military success of Hamas’ recent deadly attacks shocked Israel, the region and the world, bringing to center stage the worst images of terrorism that many Palestinians have been trying very hard to overcome. Israel’s harsh response in the Gaza Strip, however, has now tempered any early Israeli public relations gains. Increasingly, global decision-makers are now focusing on “day after the war” scenarios.
For decades, Fatah had called for an armed struggle. In a 1974 speech before the UN, late Palestinian President Yasser Arafat said he had “come bearing an olive branch and a freedom-fighter’s gun.” But ever since Arafat made the political decision to reconcile with Israel in 1993, the so-called hand with the gun was brought down. Arafat's successor, Mahmoud Abbas, 87, has insisted on the single method of political negotiations, emphasizing popular nonviolent protests as a means of showing that Palestinians reject the status quo.
The aging Abbas, who never had the charisma of his predecessor Arafat, further lost popularity after he abruptly postponed Palestinian general elections in 2021 and continued to maintain security coordination with the Israelis.
The principled political position of Abbas — depending solely on the UN and international diplomacy — has failed him. Hamas, for its part, has succeeded in moving the political waters with its Oct. 7 attack. After years of de-prioritizing the Palestinian issue, the White House recently expressed commitment to a two-state solution once the war on Gaza is over, giving credence to those saying that so-called armed struggle is needed to force a political solution.
In the meantime, Fatah, the PLO, and Abbas have had little to say as the guns on all sides (not just Hamas and Israel, but also Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen) dominate the discussion and the 24-hour news cycles.
Fatah’s leaders have generally been quiet following Oct. 7, though Abbas has expressed Palestinian aspirations in public Arab League meetings. Meanwhile, Jordan's king, queen and foreign minister have had more effective rhetoric than the Palestinian president, having received wider pickup and resonating more with global audiences.
Still, despite criticism that Abbas is no longer relevant, it is unclear who the new Fatah players would be.
Separate from the success or failure of Israel's stated aim in Gaza — namely, to eradicate Hamas — the question of what would happen the day after the fighting stops in Gaza has not yet been answered in a convincing way.
Most analysts agree that Hamas will not be allowed to have any role in governing the Gaza Strip. Equally, most don’t believe that Abbas will be willing or able to enter Gaza on the back of an Israeli military victory.
Some argue that an international force is needed to fill the governance vacuum, but Mohammad Shtayyeh, the Fatah Central Committee member who is still the prime minister in Ramallah, has rejected the idea. Shtayyeh noted that the Palestinian Authority has been running public institutions in Gaza for 30 years and that it will not agree to any divided solutions between Gaza and the West Bank.
So, what gives?
Privately, sources in Ramallah are saying that Abbas is now much more open to giving Hamas a bigger say in the affairs of the PLO. This seems to echo former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's recent Foreign Affairs article in which he says he's “doubtful that the PA as currently configured would be willing to shoulder the responsibilities of governing Gaza after a deadly and destructive Israeli offensive runs its course.”
Fayyad argues that “in accordance with its Basic Law, the PA would, through a government consented to by the expanded PLO, assume full control over managing the affairs of the Palestinian people in the West Bank and Gaza during a multiyear transitional period." He adds, "It is impossible to see how the PLO can credibly make any commitment to nonviolence as part of any attempt to restart the peace process if Hamas and factions of a similar orientation are not represented."
Possible Abbas successors
There are some who argue that President Abbas has lost so much credibility amongst the Palestinian people that he can’t be a serious player in the next stage at all.
There's been speculation about different potential leaders within the Fatah movement. Writing an op-ed for Israel's Maariv publication, Israeli academic Rafi Nets-Zehngut has thrown a new stick in the fire, arguing that imprisoned Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti — who is fluent in Hebrew, understands Israeli society and at the same time is extremely popular among Palestinians — could become the solution to the leadership issue.
A public opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research on Sept. 13 in the West Bank and Gaza showed that while Hamas’ leader Ismael Haniyeh would trounce Abbas in a head-to-head competition (58% to 37%) the opposite would be true if Barghouti competed. The poll showed that Barghouti would get 60% of the vote compared to 37% for Hamas’ Haniyeh.
Another potential leader that might be pushed by some Arab countries (especially the United Arab Emirates) could be Mohammed Dahlan, who was the main Fatah leader in Gaza when Hamas took over and is an Abbas rival. Dahlan has since become an advisor to the UAE leadership and has rebuilt a network in Gaza and the West Bank called the Fatah Democratic Reform Bloc. But while Dahlan has a strong network, including in Gaza, accusations of corruption would hurt his chances if he were to run for any political office. (He would also first need to be allowed back into Fatah, which is unlikely at present.)
The Fatah movement was scheduled to have its eighth congress in December, and although it has not officially been cancelled, many Palestinian sources have told Al-Monitor that they are certain it will be postponed.
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