Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Pentagon’s 2023 annual report to Congress on China raises the prospect that the People’s Liberation Army may be closing the gap between its own evolving counter-drone weapons and those now operational and in development with the US Military.
The text of the assessment, which is called Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, details a collection of Counter-UAS technologies now at various stages of development within the PLA.
“Hybrid self-propelled air defense artillery systems (SPADA), gun air defense artillery, small focused electronic warfare systems, and Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) form the core of the PRC’s evolving solution to countering tactical UAS,” the Pentagon report says.
The mention of “hybrid” self-propelled systems suggest that the Chinese may be developing various kinds of autonomous or semi-autonomous guidance technology wherein projectiles are able to “course correct” as needed to intercept moving drones. The US Army, for instance, is working on advanced automation and AI-enabled targeting systems to identify an optimal “effector” or “countermeasure” for a given target and make a recommendation to human decision-makers. The reference to the PLA’s “self-propelled” or “hybrid” air defense systems suggests that perhaps some of their counter drone systems are similarly looking to leverage AI or advanced algorithms enabling measures of autonomy. However, unlike the Pentagon’s doctrinal emphasis upon ensuring a human is “in-the-loop” regarding the use of lethal force, the PLA may be less encumbered or restrained by ethical considerations, a circumstance presenting increased risks.
Other systems such as EW and mobile, shoulder-fired munitions for dismounted units appear to closely mirror US military systems. For instance, the Pentagon report cites increased Chinese development of Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) for drone defense, something which may suggest the PRC is improving targeting systems for its shoulder-fired counter-air weapons, perhaps matching or rivaling US weapons such as the combat-tested Stinger missile. The US Army has also for many years been fast-tracking and operationalizing increasingly sophisticated EW systems designed to recognize an electronic signature, establish a “line-of-bearing” and “jam” or disable the guidance, targeting or navigational systems employed by unmanned systems. Some EW systems are increasingly AI-enabled and, in certain cases, able to "deconflict" the spectrum and discern hostile from friendly electronic signatures.
EW can also be configured to “blanket” an area across a wider envelope to perhaps disable an approaching drone swarm. EW, used by the Army with Raytheon’s KuRFS counter drone system, can be particularly effective when a non-kinetic solution is required such as targeting a drone in a populated area. The idea is to disable the flight path or functionality of a drone without causing fragmentation or explosive materials to present risks to civilians.
Kinetic interceptors and “area” guns are also said to be among Chinese areas of emphasis, yet another focus with clear parallels to US systems. The US military, for instance, leverages the technology of the Phalanx “area” weapons which shoots hundreds of projectiles per second to blanket an area with defensive fire. This is regularly used to protect ships and Army Forward Operating Bases from incoming drone attacks potentially spread across an open area. Sure enough, the Pentagon report highlights the PLA use of “rotary cannons” for drone defense as well.
“One of the systems with high counter UAS potential being fielded to light combined arms brigades is armed with a six barreled 25mm rotary cannon, which possibly uses Programmable Timed Fuse Pre-Fragmented rounds, and also mounts four FN-16 MANPADS on its turret,” the text of the report suggests.
The mention of “programmable” fuses is also extremely significant as it also appears to closely mirror current US technology which used both air-burst ammunition and proximity fuses to detonate near a specific, often pre-determined location near incoming enemy drones. This kind of approach can increase fragmentation and, in a manner quite similar to what the PLA appears to be developing, destroy several drones across a given area at one time.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
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