THOMAS NEWDICK
As winter draws closer, Ukraine is preparing for an even fiercer Russian drone offensive than that which was launched against its cities and infrastructure last year. The Russian drone attacks, which make particularly heavy use of Iranian-designed Shahed-series drones, have already stepped up considerably in recent weeks, Ukrainian officials say.
According to Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, attacks by Russian ‘suicide drones’ are expected to reach a record number this winter. Ihnat was speaking on Ukrainian national television, his remarks subsequently being reported by Reuters.
The country’s energy infrastructure is, once again, expected to be the main target of drone strikes, repeating Russian tactics from last winter, which left millions of Ukrainians without power. Repairs to the energy infrastructure are still ongoing as of now, and grid operators have been imposing regular rolling power cuts and rationing of hot water.
Fragments of an Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone (named Geran-2 by Russia), displayed as a symbol of war in the center of Kyiv.
Looking at data for September, Ihnat said more than 500 drones were launched against Ukraine in that month, a new record in itself. By comparison, Russia used around 1,000 Shahed drones across a sixth-month period last winter.
Ukraine is preparing for the new offensive having received new Western-made air defense equipment, but still has nowhere near enough hardware of this kind to ensure coverage of all potential energy targets. At the same time, there is a demand for certain ground-based air defense systems to be used to protect Ukrainian troops taking part in the counteroffensive in the east and south of the country, putting a further strain on these critical weapons and forcing the use of emergency solutions against drone strikes, including small-arms fire.
F-16 fighters promised by Ukraine’s allies have still not arrived, and the jets currently operated by the Ukrainian Air Force are hardly well-suited to the job of intercepting low-level, slow-flying drones, as we have reported about in the past.
It is no surprise, therefore, that air defense systems were stated as Kyiv’s priority during the visit to Washington by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month.
Today’s intelligence briefing from the U.K. Ministry of Defense also reflected on the ongoing drone war and, in particular, Russia’s increasing reliance on Iran in this regard.
The U.K. Ministry of Defense claims that “international isolation has forced Russia to redirect its foreign policy efforts towards previously less-desirable partnerships to gain diplomatic, economic, and military support,” before noting that Russia is now producing Iranian-designed drones under license.
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