BOB GOURLEY
Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Tech, and Bio Tech will make monumental shifts in the world. This new Tech Trinity will redefine our economy, both threaten and fortify our national security, and revolutionize our intelligence community. None of us are ready for this. These three technologies are individually incredible and transformative, but together they are even more powerful and more virtuous. Making the most of their contributions to humanity will require a commitment to foresight and planning on a level that is not occurring anywhere.
These three megatrends of tech are not new of course. The study of biology dates back 1000’s of years. Quantum science began in 1905. AI arose in the late 1950’s. But the character of these three technologies are very different today. Today each are delivering dramatic new capabilities at a breathtaking pace. And each are already having an impact on real world solutions. Each are also fueling developments in the other fields and each are becoming more and more integrated into the other.
It is this convergence that is getting really exciting. This is what points to even more positive change in the very near future.
How will the new Tech Trinity change things? At a high level, consider that AI makes BioTech more powerful, Quantum Tech can deliver new AI capabilities impossible with classical computers, Quantum Sensing gives new insights into the realities of the world, BioTech can extend and improve human life and human cognition and can also provide new compute platforms. See, it is all becoming related.
The convergence of the tech trinity will very likely reshape every industry and every aspect of governments at all levels. Here are some other examples just to start exploring the convergence of the new Tech Trinity, broken into categories of the economy, national security and intelligence community:
The Tech Trinity and the Economic Use Cases
For years analysts, AI practitioners, creators and politicians have been concerned with the potential for AI to make organizations so efficient that they will displace workers. This is a very real concern. Algorithms have already been developed to enable new natural language processing capabilities that run on quantum computers. So soon quantum computers will accelerate AI even more, magnifying the concerns of significant workforce displacement. We can only hope the new more powerful quantum enabled AI will also give us solutions to aid the millions that will need new occupations.
BioTech is already contributing to incredible growth in medicines, but with more powerful AI and Quantum Tech traditional pharmaceutical models will be transformed as quantum computers plus AI can simulate complex biological processes, leading to faster drug discovery and more effective treatments to individual genetic profiles. AI plus BioTech with quantum computers is also poised to re-imagine real time health monitoring and treatment.
In the agricultural sector, new BioTech approaches informed by AI will enable more productive yields with less use of chemicals and less pollution for less cost. BioTech is already being used to create synthetic chemicals and is even being used to help with the extraction of rare earth elements from ore. BioTech has been produced to generate fuels and foods from water and carbon. All these capabilities will be greatly enhanced with more powerful AI.
Life itself will be changed as BioTech solutions enable new brain machine interfaces connecting humans directly to powerful compute and mobility solutions, and this will impact the economy. Genetic engineering and use of biology to change ourselves will result in enhancements to our bodies that may start small like improving health but soon start delivering improved human sensing and brainpower. The bridge from the brain to new Quantum Tech compute power will help build incredible new capabilities for improving economic development. Exactly how remains to be seen, but clearly it will change the economy.
Sector by sector the convergence of AI and Quantum Tech and BioTech will optimize the economy beyond belief, but will disrupt things in ways no one is planning for yet. This is all about to get wild.
The Tech Trinity and the National Security/DoD Use Cases
The U.S DoD and Congress have both launched several high profile initiatives to seek to get ahead of the rapidly accelerating capabilities inAI. This has been huge and virtuous. Many initiatives are underway to better understand Quantum Tech as well. But to date there has been no similar activity with BioTech and no activity that seeks to comprehend the interplay at the convergence of this Tech Trinity.
It is clear, however, that the convergence of Artificial Intelligence, BioTech and Quantum Tech will have a profound impact on Defense and National Security, both by transforming our own capabilities and providing adversaries with new capabilities we have yet to anticipate.
The long feared ability of a high end quantum computer to break asymmetric encryption holds the potential of putting many secrets at risk unless national security systems are improved, but this may not be the greatest threat.
The combination of AI and BioTech is already enabling the creation of new bio weapons and when augmented by the power of quantum computing these will be even more of a threat.
Autonomous warfare is coming fast and the combination of AI driven weapons and bio engineered weapons could lead to new and very efficient warfare tech we must defend against. This will shift the nature of warfare.
Brain machine interfaces enabled by BioTech and AI and soon quantum compute will enable new means of controlling militaries and finding faster ways to understand the complexities of combat. The national security implications of AI and BioTech and Quantum enabled threats are not being explored well today, perhaps because they already strike fear into our hearts.
The Tech Trinity and Intelligence Community Use Cases
The US Intelligence Community has pioneered the application of advanced technologies like Artificial Intelligence to hard problems, especially problems around analysis. And the community also has experts studying topics of BioTech and Quantum Tech. But to date there is has been little examination of the power of these three powerful domains working together and little work to plan for a future where these trends accelerate beyond belief.
Quantum Tech is already giving rise to new sensors that can detect objects in new and more precise ways and enable precision navigation an other high end sensing. The field of quantum sensing is already connected to AI since so much of the data generated by quantum sensing requires AI processing. Advanced biometric surveillance, powered by AI and soon Quantum Tech, can monitor individuals in real-time, analyzing everything from facial expressions to heart rates for insights. This will revolutionize surveillance operations, but also raises significant privacy concerns and potential misuse.
The intelligence community has long been tracking the potential of quantum computers to one day break asymmetric encryption, and when this day comes it will be enabled by AI which can help target the right data to decrypt. Quantum Key Distribution is already feared by some elements of the IC since it can render interception and exploitation of adversary keys moot. The use of quantum effects to generate the highest possible entropy for encryption keys is already with us today and will improve security of IC data.
Soon adversary counterintelligence capabilities, informed by AI and Quantum and BioTech, could make traditional methods of espionage and covert operations incredibly hard. But this is a dynamic area and there will also be new methods enabled. Biotech plus AI can enable the creation of new microorganisms or devices that covertly gather intelligence or even influence human behavior. This could redefine espionage. As Quantum computers and AI and BioTech advances, new means of recruiting human sources will almost certainly be created. This could involve AI-driven personality profiling, combined with access to incredible data repositories and BioTech tools, to enable the recruitment and management of sources. These new technologies will also enable our adversaries. Counterintelligence must develop new detection and mitigation techniques to keep up.
AI system powered by quantum processors could autonomously plan and execute complex intelligence operations without human intervention. This will almost certainly come with unintended consequences.
Intelligence community analysts will need deep expertise in BioTech since it will pose a growing threat. Analysts will also need new ways of dealing with increasing quantities of data, with quantum enabled AI being perhaps the only path forward in this area. The fusion of AI, BioTech, and Quantum Tech could enable predictive modeling of geopolitical events, social unrest, or even individual behavior. This could allow the intelligence community to better inform policy and action.
No comments:
Post a Comment