Ben Caspit
Eighteen days after the attack by Hamas, Israel seems to be waiting for a green light from Washington to launch its ground assault on the Gaza Strip. Al-Monitor reported Monday that the Biden administration is concerned that Israel lacks achievable military goals for its operations in Gaza. It would also like to advance humanitarian aid for the enclave and efforts to release hostages before the ground operation is set in motion.
Meanwhile, Israelis are learning what it's like to prepare for war together with America.
"To all those who support a defense pact," a senior Israeli defense official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, "I suggest examining how we now coordinate everything with the Americans, how we don't do anything contrary to their opinion, at least for now, and how we do all this without having a defense alliance of one kind or another with them.”
The official was referring to discussions underway for months between Israel and the United States, on a loose defense alliance, which would provide Israel with US support in emergencies but not tie its hands if the need arises for urgent military action.
No American veto
Having called up over 300,000 reserve troops since Oct. 7, the military says it is ready. Its forces amassing on the Gaza border have spent the past two weeks training, devising attack plans for the dense urban terrain in Gaza, amending, updating and testing them.
"It's not that you can't attack without a green light from the Americans," an Israeli war Cabinet source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "The Americans don't forbid us or veto anything, they only advise us closely and we cooperate fully. They immediately put at our disposal, without us even asking, all the power and backing of a superpower."
"That said, we know how to appreciate what we received. Two aircraft carriers and $14 billion is a major event, and we have to pay for that too, at least on the level of cooperation," the source added.
To think that until recently, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and many in his government were clashing with the Biden administration over the deeply controversial judicial overhaul they were pushing through to limit the powers of the Supreme Court, dropping hints about President Joe Biden’s interference, threatening to turn to China or Russia or anyone who would issue an invitation to Netanyahu to visit in revenge for Biden’s refusal to host him at the White House.
These bitter sentiments all fell by the wayside Oct. 7 with the savage Hamas attack on southern Israel.
"Netanyahu is working full time with the Americans," a senior Israeli political source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "He probably knows his career is over. The Israeli public is facing painful disillusionment, perhaps unprecedented in modern history. Netanyahu would be better off preparing shelter for himself with lecture tours in America. He's already thinking ahead."
In the more immediate term, Israel has little choice but to undertake a ground incursion despite the heavy risk to its troops and civilians in Gaza. The senior war Cabinet source told Al-Monitor that Israel cannot stop its attack on Gaza after the intense aerial and artillery bombardment of the past two weeks.
“The Middle East has been looking up to us for the past decade. We were the only ones who took on Iran on an almost daily basis, we contributed greatly to the defeat of ISIS, the Israel Defense Forces [IDF] have operated in almost every corner of the Middle East and beyond with phenomenal success, and then suddenly comes a small terrorist organization," said the source. "Everyone, from Cairo to Amman, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Beirut and Tehran, is raising their eyebrows. We must show them we are still a regional superpower."
The ground operation, which was already supposed to have begun, is being delayed, apparently in order to give the Americans time to deploy additional forces in the region.
"The United States is aware that the IDF's entry into Gaza is liable to set off additional arenas and perhaps even plunge the Middle East into a regional war. They want to complete their preparations. This involves a major shift of forces … and there is no reason why we should not wait until this move is completed," a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor.
Hostage negotiations
The source also pointed out that Biden has urged Israel to take advantage of a small window of opportunity that appears to have opened to negotiate with Hamas on freeing at least some of the estimated 220 Israelis and foreign hostages. “Once the ground operation starts, this will be tougher. Israel is in no position to reject such a move," he said.
Indeed, on Monday night, Hamas released two elderly Israeli women it had been holding hostage since Oct. 7, after freeing two other women, dual US and Israeli nationals, last week.
Israel’s initial bravado in declaring it would bring down Hamas has been quietly replaced with more modest and realistic goals: dealing a severe blow to Hamas, its infrastructure and its top command, which will make it difficult for the group to continue running Gaza. This is Israel's updated goal. As for its goals for the day after, there is no definitive answer.
In these dark and uncertain days, Israel’s top military brass is finding solace in the level of Israeli-American operational and political cooperation. "The coordination is amazing, there has never been anything like it," a senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "They sit with us, we coordinate every step, every piece of intelligence, consult each other. The Americans have great experience in everything we are doing now and they have superpower capabilities, the synergy between us creates completely new inputs."
These inputs, however, make Israel more dependent on the United States than it has ever been. Israel benefits from the close cooperation in the short term, but its long-term deterrence risks are being undermined.
"This is the most important point — our deterrence," the senior war Cabinet source said. "The region must quickly understand that whoever harms Israel the way Hamas did, pays a disproportionate price. There is no other way to survive in our neighborhood than to exact this price now, because many eyes are fixed on us and most of them do not have our best interests at heart.”
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