STEPHEN R. NAGY
The surprise attack on Israel by Hamas militants on Oct. 7 raises the specter of unconventional warfare being waged to achieve political objectives in other parts of the world as well, including in Japan’s backyard.
Unconventional warfare is a blanket term used to describe all military and quasi-military operations outside of conventional warfare, namely wars fought between states. It includes, but is not exclusive to, revolutionary wars and their constituents, subversion and guerrilla operations, as well as other types of special operations.
The tactics used by Hamas are clear examples of unconventional warfare. These include the launching of "homemade" rockets, the breaching of Israeli borders using motor gliders, bulldozers and boats, as well as the indiscriminate killing and kidnapping of civilians — including children and the elderly — to use as hostages.
As Japan and other like-minded states watch the conflict between Israel and Hamas unfold, it is critical to remain vigilant and to enhance deterrence in the Indo-Pacific against the plurality of security threats that exist — including the possibility of unconventional wars erupting, which could potentially lead to larger conventional conflicts.
Key areas of concern continue to be Taiwan, sea lanes in the South China Sea, the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, North Korea’s development of weapons of mass destruction and the Himalayan Plateau where Indian and Chinese troops clashed in May 2021.
When looking at the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the waters around the Senkaku Islands, China is the primary source of instability with its efforts to change the status quo, including through the use of unconventional means.
A recent example of these unconventional tactics occurred at Whitsun Reef near the Philippines in March 2021, when the Philippine government's National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea received a report that around 220 Chinese fishing vessels were observed as moored off the reef. These swarming tactics on Beijing's part are meant to overwhelm smaller states to dissuade them from pursuing their own territorial claims.
In the case of the Senkaku Islands, the Japan Coast Guard continuously monitors the number of China Coast Guard and other vessels that enter Japan's contiguous zone surrounding the islets.
The use of coast guard vessels versus merchant vessels complicates Japan’s efforts to secure its administrative control over the islands. And a recent change to Article 21 of China’s Coast Guard Law noted that, “Measures such as forcible eviction may be taken against illegal acts committed by foreign military vessels. ...” This language suggests that China is using its constabulary forces within Japan's sovereign territory, complicating matters on how Tokyo can respond.
Chinese merchant vessels present a different problem around the Senkaku Islands. As they move freely in and out of Japanese waters, they send back GPS data to China. This data is used to build a legal case that Japan does not have exclusive administrative control over the islands, a legal tactic — or lawfare — meant to erode Japan’s territorial claims.
Taiwan presents an even more difficult unconventional warfare challenge. China's People's Liberation Army Air Force regularly crosses into the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone, putting strain on the Taiwanese Air Force, which is forced to respond. The cutting of two submarine internet cables linked to Taiwan by Chinese ships in February, the flooding of Taiwan with disinformation ahead of presidential elections and the conducting of numerous military exercises in waters surrounding the island, especially the massive drills held after the visit by former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August of 2022, are all forms of unconventional warfare.
If they are not managed appropriately, these tactics have the potential to cascade into a military conflict.
Using diplomatic channels and coordinated diplomacy, Japan needs to work with like-minded partners to convey that the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and the waters around the Senkakus should remain free for the international public good.
The growing number of statements about peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait in multilateral statements by NATO, the Group of Seven and even in the recent Camp David Principles announced by Japan, South Korea and the U.S. have all inserted language about Taiwan. Concerns about sea lines of communication in the South China and East China Seas should be included as well.
Along with diplomacy, increased vigilance about unconventional threats in the region must be backed up with enhanced deterrence capabilities such as counterstrike options and the the provision of arms, equipment and training to Taiwan and other Southeast Asian states.
The Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness is a good example of how Japan can use minilateral partnerships like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to contribute to maritime security in the region. Expanding the number of partners that can plug into the initiative can enhance its effectiveness.
The Japan-South Korea-U.S. trilateral summit may help dissuade North Korea from engaging in both conventional and unconventional warfare activities, especially if the three nations hold joint military drills and security consultations.
The tension between India and China on the Himalayan Plateau also constitutes a challenge to regional stability as unconventional tactics are used by China to inculcate their forces into Indian territory. Enhancing India’s ability to get resources to the region through the building of infrastructure may be an effective means to allow India to better defend itself against Chinese unconventional tactics.
Hamas’ attack on Israel should be a wakeup call for security planners in the Indo-Pacific as well. It should be seen alongside Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Japan and like-minded countries can no longer separate their security needs from other parts of the world. The “successes” and failures of Hamas and Russia will inevitably be studied by China, North Korea, Russia and Iran to advance their strategic objectives.
Vigilance and deterrence will be required in order to decrease the chances that revisionist states use conventional or unconventional warfare to achieve their geopolitical ambitions. Military, nonmilitary and diplomatic tools should be part of the toolkit to address these challenges. Japan’s diplomatic, economic and security partnerships, including its internationally trusted reputation and commitment to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region should be leveraged to achieve this objective.
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