Bill Schneider
The rule in American politics is this: Foreign policy may not save you — but it can defeat you.
Lyndon Johnson presided over a period of record prosperity and domestic achievements in the 1960s. But the deeply unpopular Vietnam war made it impossible for him to run for re-election in 1968.
After the Gulf War in 1991, President George H.W. Bush, who had overthrown Saddam Hussein, stood astride the world like a colossus. His job approval was at 89%. But the recession of 1990-1991 took its toll. Bush’s job approval sank to 29% in July 1992. He was defeated for re-election a few months later.
President Biden is drawing broad acclaim for his staunch support of Israel following the murderous October 7 assaults on Israelis, which saw more than 1,300 Jews killed. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) called it “the largest single-day mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust.” Biden’s October 10 remarks were a model of moral clarity: “In this moment, we must be clear. We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. … Let there be no doubt. The United States has Israel’s back.”
In politics, timing is everything. There were scattered utterances of pro-Palestinian sentiment on the far left, but they were quickly repudiated. The New York Times quoted Stu Loeser, an adviser to New York Democrats, saying, “This is not a time for nuance. … It is an important ‘Which side are you on?’ moment.”
For the first 20 years of its existence (1948-1967), Israel was seen as a country of the left. Many of its leaders (David Ben Gurion, Shimon Peres) came from the European socialist tradition. The Soviet Union was a strong supporter. The leading political party was the Israeli Labor Party. The kibbutz movement was clearly identified with the left.
All that changed with the Six-Day War in 1967, when Israel conquered and occupied previously Arab territories. Starting in 1967, Israel came to be identified more and more with the international right. Leftists saw Israel as an outpost of European colonialism in a third-world territory.
At the same time, the Democratic Party has moved to the left, and Israel’s supporters in the party have been thrown on the defensive. Younger and more liberal Democrats, including many progressive Jewish voters, became openly critical of Israel.
Despite President Biden’s effort to restore consensus, Israel — like every other issue in U.S. politics — has become more partisan. Democrats were outraged when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted an invitation from the Republican Speaker of the House to address a joint session of Congress — a move that President Obama’s White House denounced as a breach of protocol.
Netanyahu now heads the most right-wing government in Israel’s history. As a result, the sympathies of many Democratic voters have been shifting away from Israel. A Gallup poll taken in February revealed that, for the first time, more Democrats said they sympathized with the Palestinians than with Israel, 49% to 38%.
The terrorist attacks by Hamas may have reversed that trend. A Morning Consult survey taken after the attacks shows sympathy for Israel among Democrats now outweighing sympathy for the Palestinians, 28% to 15%, with 30% sympathetic to both. In the electorate overall, support for Israel now exceeds support for the Palestinians, 41% to 9%.
Still, there’s no evidence so far that the conflict has affected President Biden’s standing with voters. The president’s job approval, according to current polls aggregated by the website “FiveThirtyEight,” remains around 40%. About the same as favorable opinion of Donald Trump.
Trump may be facing more trouble on this issue than Biden. Trump’s standard of moral clarity appears to be how the issue affects his own ego. Trump told Fox News that Netanyahu was not prepared and Israel was not prepared, adding that “Under Trump, they would not have had to be prepared.”
Trump was apparently incensed because Netanyahu had called Biden to congratulate him for his 2020 election victory, after what Trump continues to insist was a “rigged election.” Trump said in a video posted to the internet, “I kept Israel safe. Nobody else will. Nobody else can.”
Trump praised Hezbollah, the terrorist organization in Lebanon committed to Israel’s destruction, as “very smart.” (For Trump, “smart” apparently means shrewd — i.e., like himself.) Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Trump critic and rival for the 2024 Republican nomination, said on CNN in response, “Only a fool would give comments that could give aid and comfort to Israel’s adversary in this situation. He always places it in the context of himself.” Another GOP rival, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, said, “You don’t congratulate or give any credit to murderers.”
President Biden certainly knows from experience that foreign policy will not save him if the economy doesn’t improve. At the same time, Democrats may be tempted to count on foreign policy to defeat Trump. If he continues to say stupid things, it might.
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