Nicole Gaudiano and Rebecca Morin
President Joe Biden pledged to Israel after Hamas' terrorist attacks earlier this month that the United States "will not let you ever be alone.” And he has repeatedly promised to support Ukraine's fight against Russian aggression for “as long as it takes.”
His challenge will be convincing the American public that full-throated support and tens of billions of dollars in proposed aid for allies engaged in wars abroad with no end in sight should be a priority for the long haul — particularly after he campaigned in 2020 on ending “forever wars."
The conflicts in Israel and Ukraine are in many ways different from the one Biden put an end to in Afghanistan, where U.S. troops were on the ground dating back 20 years. Ukraine is fighting its own war against Russia with U.S. assistance and a decision this week to send additional military assets to the Middle East is “all about deterrence,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said.
But chances are, the violence will still be ongoing — and part of the debate — by this time next year as Biden is in the heat of his reelection campaign. His likely Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, claims he will “prevent World War III” and blames the conflicts on Biden.
Presidential elections don’t typically turn on foreign policy, as voters are usually more concerned about domestic economic issues. And so far, most Americans agree with Biden that the U.S. should support Ukraine and Israel. But some fatigue is growing for U.S. involvement with Ukraine and Biden’s low approval ratings have yet to show any signs of improving.
“I think the trends are going against him,” said Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. “On the Ukraine side, voters are with him, but a majority of Republican voters no longer are. And on Israel, Palestine, voters are with him, but it's surprisingly soft among young voters. It's surprisingly soft among progressive Democrats. And there are some real challenges in swing states that have … significant Muslim populations — Michigan, for example.”
Comparisons to America’s longest war in Afghanistan are hard to make when the U.S. hasn’t committed ground troops in either conflict. Even so, Biden has been working to sell a war-weary public on backing Israel and Ukraine without a timeline while trying to keep both conflicts from spreading.
The president is calling on Congress to pass a spending package of more than $105 billion, with $61.4 billion for Ukraine, $14.3 billion for Israel for missile and defense support and $9.15 billion for humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, Israel and Gaza. The immediate path forward for the request is murky given the House remains without a speaker.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has sent two carrier strike groups to the region in the Middle East to deter other groups from getting involved in the conflict. And the White House announced on Monday that the U.S. is now sending additional air defenses to U.S. air bases in the region after increasing rocket and drone attacks by Iranian-backed proxy groups against military bases housing U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria.
Biden made his case to the nation last Thursday in just the second speech from the Oval Office of his presidency. He said Hamas and Russian President Vladimir Putin “both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy” and that ensuring Israel and Ukraine succeed is “vital for America’s national security.”
“History has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction,” Biden said. “They keep going, and the cost and the threats to America and to the world keep rising.”
A national Quinnipiac University poll released last week showed 76% of voters said that supporting Israel is in the national interest of the U.S., while 65% said the same of supporting Ukraine. Views of Biden’s handling of both crises were split more evenly, and his overall job approval rating was mired below 40%.
Support for defending democracy and allies doesn’t necessarily mean these conflicts will be politically advantageous for the White House, said Richard Goldberg, a Republican foreign policy strategist and senior advisor at Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“My gut tells me that people just see chaos and problems and fires in the world on top of inflation on top of economic distress,” he said. “And it just feels like we're on the wrong track.”
Biden’s allies, however, say there’s way more at stake.
“Everyone should hate war,” said Rep. Greg Landsman of Ohio, a Jewish Democrat who visited the Israel-Gaza border in August and a member of the House Ukraine Caucus. “It is not anything that any of us want. But to take a backseat will only lead to more violence and more instability. It's our leadership that will help to stabilize these regions and keep authoritarianism and terrorism at bay.”
Biden was “dead-set” on diplomatic and especially military disentanglement at the outset of his term, but he’s now been “reluctantly” placed in a position where his foreign policy will be defined by the support the U.S. provides to Ukraine and Israel, said Brett Bruen, president of the strategic communications agency Global Situation Room.
One upside for Biden, he said, is that “there is almost no scenario” in which the U.S. commits troops to either conflict “so you're not going to fall into another forever war for the U.S. military,” said Bruen, a former U.S. diplomat and former White House director of Global Engagement under President Obama.
Following the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the new conflicts offer Biden a “level of redemption and a chance to refocus his foreign policy on these more popular decisions,” said Bruen.
The conflicts also give Biden an opportunity to define threats to democracy as being beyond Trump and to bring moderate Republicans to his side. Some may decide in 2024 that “Trump is simply too risky a leader to have at a time when the existence of the State of Israel, the existence of a European country, hangs in the balance,” he said.
“I think that there is a value in showing his leadership in fact, his bipartisan credentials around these issues,” he said.
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